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Race Dead Heat in North Carolina
Raleigh, N.C. – Senator Barack Obama has pulled even with John McCain in the race for President in North Carolina, according to the latest poll from the Civitas Institute.
According to the live telephone survey of 600 likely General Election voters, McCain and Obama both received 44 percent of the respondents. When those who answered undecided were asked if they leaned one way or another, McCain and Obama both received 45 percent of the vote. Libertarian candidate Bob Barr received two percent. 7 percent of voters remained undecided.
“Senator Obama has caught John McCain in the polls in North Carolina,” said Francis De Luca, Executive Director of the Civitas Institute. “A state that was once thought to be solidly in McCain’s camp has become a toss-up according to this month’s poll.”
Obama has reversed McCain’s recent lead among unaffiliated voters and now leads 45-40. Obama is receiving 12 percent of the Republican vote while McCain has 22 percent of the Democrats.
Among white voters, McCain leads 59-30. Obama receives virtually all (95 percent) of the African-American vote. For further analysis of turnout and voting click here: Can Obama Win N. C.?
“The moderate, unaffiliated voters have swung to Obama this month, resulting in a virtual dead heat for President,” added De Luca. “The race in North Carolina hinges on these voters.”
Previous Civitas Poll results:
February – McCain 46, Obama 36
April – McCain 48, Obama 39
May – McCain 44, Obama 39
June – McCain 45, Obama 41, Barr 2
July – McCain 43, Obama 40, Barr 2
August – McCain 46, Obama 40, Barr 2
The study of 600 registered voters was conducted September 17-20 by Tel Opinion Research of Alexandria, Virginia. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters we interviewed had to have voted in either the 2002, 2004 or 2006 general election or were newly registered voters since 2006. The voters were interviewed using live callers.
The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95% of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4.2% of the “True Values.” “True Values” refer to the results obtained if were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in either the 2002, 2004 or 2006 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2006.
If you would like more information regarding this topic or to schedule an interview with Francis De Luca, please call Gabe Dellinger at 919.747.8065 or email at Gabe.Dellinger@nccivitas.org.