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Civitas Poll: Four-term Democratic Incumbent Glazier in Battle to Keep HD 45 Seat

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Raleigh, N.C. – Four-term Democratic incumbent Rep. Rick Glazier is facing a difficult reelection bid as he trails Republican opponent Jackie Warner by 10 percent, according to a new SurveyUSA poll released today by the Civitas Institute.

According to the poll of 300 registered voters in that district, comprised of Cumberland County, 51 percent of voters said they would vote for Warner if the election for state representative were held today.  Forty-one percent of voters said they would vote for Glazier, and 8 percent said they are undecided.

Democratic support for Glazier remains strong as 67 percent said they would vote for him if the election were today.  Conversely, Warner has garnered the support of both Republican (80 percent-16 percent) and unaffiliated voters (60 percent-19 percent).

“While this is a leaning Democratic district, Glazier is undoubtedly in an uphill battle to hold onto his seat as Warner is appealing to a variety of voters,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes.  “

Glazier, while holding the advantage in name identification as the incumbent, has a +3 net favorable rating (33 percent favorable-30 percent unfavorable) among voters.  Twenty-three percent said they are neutral, and 15 percent said they have no opinion of him.  

Warner, whose husband held this seat until Glazier won in 2004, appears to be benefiting in name recognition from her time served in Cumberland County public education.  Forty-nine percent of the district’s voters have an opinion of her (34 percent favorable-15 percent unfavorable), for a +19 favorable rating.  Looking at party affiliation, Republicans and unaffiliated voters have an overall favorable opinion of Warner, including Democrats by a 25 percent-14 percent margin.

The statewide trend toward Republicans on the generic ballot continues as 57 percent of the district’s voters said they will vote for the Republican candidate for state Legislature this fall.  Support for Democratic candidates drops 22 points to 35 percent, and 8 percent of voters said they are undecided.

“The overwhelming wave of Republican support, along with the shift of unaffiliateds away from Democratic candidates, may prove to be too much for Glazier at this point,” added Hayes.

House District 45 is rated as a D+4 district on Civitas’ Civitas Partisan Index – an index that rates the relative partisan voting habits of individual legislative districts.  For more on the CPI, click here.

House District 44

Additional numbers reveal that Republican candidate Johnny Dawkins is maintaining his lead over Democratic Rep. Diane Parfitt in the state House District 44 race – comprised of Cumberland County.

Of the 300 voters surveyed, 49 percent said they would vote for Dawkins if the election for state representative were today.  Forty-four percent said they would vote for Parfitt, and 7 percent are undecided.

However, among those who are most likely to vote in 2010, Dawkin’s lead increases to 56 percent-37 percent.

Parfitt, appointed as state representative in February, has a +9 favorability rating as 27 percent of voters said their opinion of her is favorable while 18 percent view her unfavorably.  Forty percent of voters said their opinion is neutral, and 15 percent said they have no opinion of her campaign for representative.

Dawkins’ term on the Fayetteville City Council and his family’s political standing seem to be boosting his name recognition as his net favorable rating is +17 (40 percent favorable-23 percent unfavorable).  Meanwhile, 25 percent of the district’s voters said they are neutral, and 12 percent said they have no opinion.

Also adding to Dawkins’ numbers are unaffiliated votes who view him favorably by a 40 percent-28 percent margin.  When asked for whom they would vote if the election for state representative were today, Dawkins earns their support by 60 percent-24 percent.

“Dawkins certainly is being helped by his family’s longstanding political involvement, but the support of unaffiliated voters is also giving him a boost as we head into the final weekend before Election Day,” said Hayes.

House District 22

In Bladen and Cumberland counties, Democratic incumbent Rep. William Brisson is trailing his Republican opponent John Szoka by four percent.

Of the 300 voters surveyed, 49 percent said they would vote for Szoka if the election for state representative were today.  Forty-four percent of voters said they would vote for Brisson, and 8 percent said they are undecided.

Meanwhile, looking at voters who said they are most likely voting in the fall, Szoka’s lead jumps to a 57 percent-37 percent margin.

Despite Brisson’s two terms as representative, more voters, or 53 percent, have an opinion of Szoka (36 percent favorable-17 percent unfavorable), giving him a net +19 favorable rating.  Twenty-nine percent of voters said they are neutral, and 18 percent said they have no opinion of his candidacy.  Conversely, 42 percent of voters have an opinion of Brisson (25 percent favorable-17 percent unfavorable), for a net +8 favorable.  Thirty-six percent of voters said their opinion is neutral, and 22 percent said they have no opinion of Brisson and his reelection campaign.

“Brisson hasn’t really established himself among voters while Szoka appears to be capitalizing upon Republican momentum as voters head to the polls,” Hayes commented.

The Civitas Partisan Index rates House District 22 as a D+3 district.

For full results and crosstabs from the poll, click here.

The survey of 900 registered voters was taken October 25-26 by SurveyUSA on behalf of the Civitas Institute using the Interactive Voice Response (IVR) method.  It carries a margin of error of 5.8%.

This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling of Fairfield, CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S. Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ.

This article was posted in Press Releases by Katie Trout on October 29, 2010 at 3:22 PM.

© 2011 The Civitas Institute. Visit us on the web at www.nccivitas.org.
This article can be found at http://www.nccivitas.org/2010/civitas-poll-four-term-democratic-incumbent-glazier-battle-ke/

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