NC 2nd District Flash Poll


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1 North Carolina will hold elections for national and state offices in November 2010. On a scale of 1 to 10, how likely are you to vote in the election… where 10 means you are certain to vote …and 1 means you are certain NOT to vote.
400 Registered Voters All Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Party Affiliation Vote For US Rep Likely To Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.8% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/Ot Republic Democrat Independ Ellmers Etheridge 1-4 5 6-8 9 10
1 6% 5% 7% 8% 5% 5% 8% 6% 6% 6% 8% ** ** 7% 5% 7% 7% 7% 78% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 0% 2% 1% 1% ** ** 2% 0% 1% 1% 1% 12% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2% 0% 3% ** ** 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% ** ** 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5 9% 6% 11% 22% 8% 1% 5% 14% 3% 6% 9% ** ** 5% 13% 5% 5% 12% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
6 2% 5% 0% 6% 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 1% 7% ** ** 2% 1% 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 22% 0% 0%
7 3% 4% 2% 8% 2% 1% 1% 4% 1% 4% 1% ** ** 3% 3% 3% 5% 3% 0% 0% 30% 0% 0%
8 5% 4% 6% 10% 3% 5% 1% 6% 3% 3% 10% ** ** 6% 5% 3% 1% 2% 0% 0% 48% 0% 0%
9 10% 13% 8% 8% 9% 13% 12% 9% 12% 12% 7% ** ** 16% 9% 5% 15% 8% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%
10 63% 61% 65% 38% 70% 70% 70% 57% 70% 67% 55% ** ** 59% 62% 70% 65% 67% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Registered Voters 100% 46% 54% 22% 32% 28% 18% 54% 46% 68% 25% 3% 4% 32% 47% 20% 39% 38% 8% 9% 10% 10% 63%
Averages 8.5 8.6 8.4 7.4 8.8 8.9 8.6 8.2 8.8 8.7 8.0 7.1 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.6 8.7 8.4 1.3 5.0 7.3 9.0 10.0
 
2 In general, is the state of North Carolina headed in the right direction? Or is it off on the wrong track?
400 Registered Voters All Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Party Affiliation Vote For US Rep Likely To Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.9% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/Ot Republic Democrat Independ Ellmers Etheridge 1-4 5 6-8 9 10
Right Direction 24% 22% 26% 22% 13% 30% 38% 16% 34% 15% 55% ** ** 13% 37% 14% 6% 49% 33% 17% 28% 20% 24%
Wrong Track 60% 64% 57% 63% 66% 59% 46% 65% 54% 69% 32% ** ** 66% 47% 77% 79% 35% 59% 56% 52% 57% 62%
Not Sure 16% 14% 17% 16% 21% 10% 16% 19% 12% 16% 13% ** ** 21% 16% 9% 15% 16% 8% 28% 20% 23% 13%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Registered Voters 100% 46% 54% 22% 32% 28% 18% 54% 46% 68% 25% 3% 4% 32% 47% 20% 39% 38% 8% 9% 10% 10% 63%
 
3 In the election for Congress this fall, will you vote for … (choices rotated) the Republican candidate? Or the Democratic candidate?
400 Registered Voters All Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Party Affiliation Vote For US Rep Likely To Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 5% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/Ot Republic Democrat Independ Ellmers Etheridge 1-4 5 6-8 9 10
Republican 45% 52% 39% 41% 47% 43% 49% 45% 45% 59% 6% ** ** 83% 20% 44% 89% 7% 44% 23% 40% 57% 47%
Democratic 39% 35% 42% 39% 33% 42% 45% 36% 43% 24% 83% ** ** 7% 69% 24% 4% 83% 41% 53% 42% 30% 38%
Undecided 16% 13% 18% 20% 19% 15% 7% 20% 12% 18% 11% ** ** 10% 11% 32% 7% 10% 15% 23% 18% 13% 15%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Registered Voters 100% 46% 54% 22% 32% 28% 18% 54% 46% 68% 25% 3% 4% 32% 47% 20% 39% 38% 8% 9% 10% 10% 63%
 
4 Is your opinion of Bob Etheridge … favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Bob Etheridge?
400 Registered Voters All Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Party Affiliation Vote For US Rep Likely To Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 5% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/Ot Republic Democrat Independ Ellmers Etheridge 1-4 5 6-8 9 10
Favorable 26% 19% 33% 25% 21% 26% 39% 23% 31% 24% 37% ** ** 15% 36% 19% 3% 64% 35% 24% 2% 20% 31%
Unfavorable 40% 46% 35% 43% 41% 39% 38% 42% 38% 47% 19% ** ** 54% 27% 51% 71% 2% 33% 19% 60% 35% 42%
Neutral 26% 31% 22% 17% 32% 30% 18% 26% 25% 25% 29% ** ** 24% 26% 29% 21% 23% 19% 27% 35% 32% 24%
No Opinion 8% 4% 11% 15% 5% 5% 6% 9% 5% 4% 16% ** ** 7% 11% 2% 5% 11% 13% 30% 2% 13% 4%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Registered Voters 100% 46% 54% 22% 32% 28% 18% 54% 46% 68% 25% 3% 4% 32% 47% 20% 39% 38% 8% 9% 10% 10% 63%
 
5 Is your opinion of Renee Ellmers… favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Renee Ellmers?
400 Registered Voters All Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Party Affiliation Vote For US Rep Likely To Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 5% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/Ot Republic Democrat Independ Ellmers Etheridge 1-4 5 6-8 9 10
Favorable 17% 26% 9% 15% 16% 19% 19% 16% 19% 20% 8% ** ** 29% 12% 12% 39% 4% 9% 1% 18% 36% 17%
Unfavorable 11% 9% 14% 14% 9% 13% 11% 11% 12% 14% 5% ** ** 7% 13% 16% 5% 13% 15% 4% 0% 6% 15%
Neutral 32% 34% 30% 20% 30% 39% 39% 26% 39% 32% 35% ** ** 29% 31% 39% 32% 29% 45% 19% 34% 25% 33%
No Opinion 39% 31% 47% 50% 45% 29% 32% 47% 31% 35% 51% ** ** 35% 44% 33% 24% 54% 31% 75% 49% 32% 35%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Registered Voters 100% 46% 54% 22% 32% 28% 18% 54% 46% 68% 25% 3% 4% 32% 47% 20% 39% 38% 8% 9% 10% 10% 63%
 
6 If the election for United States House of Representatives were today, would you vote for (candidate names rotated) … Republican Renee Ellmers? Democrat Bob Etheridge? Or Libertarian Tom Rose?
400 Registered Voters All Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Party Affiliation Vote For US Rep Likely To Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 5% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/Ot Republic Democrat Independ Ellmers Etheridge 1-4 5 6-8 9 10
Ellmers (R) 39% 49% 31% 32% 45% 39% 37% 40% 39% 50% 9% ** ** 70% 22% 32% 100% 0% 37% 21% 30% 56% 41%
Etheridge (D) 38% 30% 44% 31% 37% 36% 48% 35% 41% 27% 67% ** ** 15% 58% 22% 0% 100% 45% 50% 16% 28% 40%
Rose (L) 13% 11% 14% 21% 13% 12% 3% 16% 8% 13% 10% ** ** 6% 8% 35% 0% 0% 6% 16% 25% 11% 11%
Undecided 11% 10% 11% 16% 5% 13% 11% 10% 12% 10% 15% ** ** 10% 12% 11% 0% 0% 12% 13% 29% 5% 8%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Registered Voters 100% 46% 54% 22% 32% 28% 18% 54% 46% 68% 25% 3% 4% 32% 47% 20% 39% 38% 8% 9% 10% 10% 63%
 
7 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?
400 Registered Voters All Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Party Affiliation Vote For US Rep Likely To Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 5% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/Ot Republic Democrat Independ Ellmers Etheridge 1-4 5 6-8 9 10
Approve 38% 34% 41% 32% 35% 43% 41% 34% 42% 23% 81% ** ** 11% 63% 19% 8% 77% 45% 54% 29% 27% 38%
Disapprove 55% 59% 50% 54% 58% 53% 51% 56% 52% 70% 12% ** ** 84% 28% 73% 87% 18% 52% 37% 55% 60% 56%
Not Sure 8% 7% 8% 14% 7% 4% 8% 10% 5% 8% 7% ** ** 5% 9% 8% 5% 5% 3% 9% 16% 13% 6%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Registered Voters 100% 46% 54% 22% 32% 28% 18% 54% 46% 68% 25% 3% 4% 32% 47% 20% 39% 38% 8% 9% 10% 10% 63%
 
8 Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate that supported the health care bill recently signed into law? Less likely? Or would it make no difference either way?
400 Registered Voters All Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Party Affiliation Vote For US Rep Likely To Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 5% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/Ot Republic Democrat Independ Ellmers Etheridge 1-4 5 6-8 9 10
More Likely 34% 31% 36% 25% 33% 38% 40% 30% 39% 20% 73% ** ** 9% 56% 18% 6% 69% 50% 36% 31% 26% 33%
Less Likely 53% 57% 49% 58% 54% 51% 48% 55% 50% 70% 5% ** ** 84% 30% 61% 91% 15% 47% 46% 46% 61% 54%
No Difference 9% 8% 10% 6% 11% 9% 12% 9% 10% 10% 8% ** ** 6% 10% 15% 2% 11% 3% 19% 11% 14% 8%
Not Sure 4% 3% 5% 12% 2% 1% 1% 6% 1% 0% 14% ** ** 2% 4% 6% 0% 5% 0% 0% 12% 0% 4%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Registered Voters 100% 46% 54% 22% 32% 28% 18% 54% 46% 68% 25% 3% 4% 32% 47% 20% 39% 38% 8% 9% 10% 10% 63%
 
9 Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate that voted for "Cap and Trade" legislation that would regulate carbon emissions? Less likely? Or would it make no difference either way?
400 Registered Voters All Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Party Affiliation Vote For US Rep Likely To Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 5% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/Ot Republic Democrat Independ Ellmers Etheridge 1-4 5 6-8 9 10
More Likely 34% 34% 34% 37% 27% 37% 35% 31% 36% 29% 51% ** ** 14% 41% 49% 17% 50% 35% 24% 38% 19% 36%
Less Likely 36% 42% 31% 26% 39% 40% 37% 34% 39% 42% 18% ** ** 51% 26% 38% 59% 18% 37% 34% 11% 54% 37%
No Difference 26% 24% 28% 28% 28% 22% 24% 28% 23% 25% 24% ** ** 27% 29% 13% 20% 27% 20% 42% 42% 24% 22%
Not Sure 4% 1% 8% 8% 5% 1% 4% 6% 2% 4% 7% ** ** 7% 4% 0% 4% 4% 7% 0% 9% 3% 4%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Registered Voters 100% 46% 54% 22% 32% 28% 18% 54% 46% 68% 25% 3% 4% 32% 47% 20% 39% 38% 8% 9% 10% 10% 63%
 
10 Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate that voted to approve the bailout for Wall Street? Less likely? Or would it make no difference either way?
400 Registered Voters All Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Party Affiliation Vote For US Rep Likely To Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.9% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/Ot Republic Democrat Independ Ellmers Etheridge 1-4 5 6-8 9 10
More Likely 16% 16% 16% 21% 10% 16% 20% 15% 17% 13% 27% ** ** 8% 22% 15% 6% 25% 25% 20% 7% 8% 17%
Less Likely 61% 67% 56% 52% 64% 65% 60% 59% 63% 69% 36% ** ** 77% 49% 67% 85% 40% 50% 55% 45% 79% 63%
No Difference 20% 16% 23% 17% 24% 18% 18% 21% 18% 16% 34% ** ** 12% 24% 17% 9% 33% 14% 15% 40% 13% 19%
Not Sure 3% 2% 4% 10% 1% 1% 2% 5% 1% 3% 3% ** ** 4% 4% 1% 0% 2% 11% 9% 9% 0% 1%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Registered Voters 100% 46% 54% 22% 32% 28% 18% 54% 46% 68% 25% 3% 4% 32% 47% 20% 39% 38% 8% 9% 10% 10% 63%
 
11 Have you seen, read or heard anything about a recent video showing Congressman Bob Etheridge involved in a confrontation with a college student?
400 Registered Voters All Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Party Affiliation Vote For US Rep Likely To Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.7% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/Ot Republic Democrat Independ Ellmers Etheridge 1-4 5 6-8 9 10
Yes 84% 84% 84% 68% 88% 89% 86% 80% 88% 89% 69% ** ** 84% 82% 85% 89% 80% 83% 61% 74% 86% 88%
No 13% 11% 14% 25% 10% 8% 9% 16% 8% 8% 27% ** ** 10% 14% 14% 8% 18% 14% 27% 26% 2% 10%
Not Sure 4% 6% 2% 7% 1% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% ** ** 6% 3% 2% 3% 2% 4% 12% 0% 12% 2%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Registered Voters 100% 46% 54% 22% 32% 28% 18% 54% 46% 68% 25% 3% 4% 32% 47% 20% 39% 38% 8% 9% 10% 10% 63%
 
12 Does the video make you more likely to vote for Bob Etheridge? Less likely? Or does it make no difference either way?
335 Familiar With Video All Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Party Affiliation Vote For US Rep Likely To Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 5.5% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/Ot Republic Democrat Independ Ellmers Etheridge 1-4 5 6-8 9 10
More Likely 14% 14% 14% 12% 7% 18% 24% 9% 20% 11% 29% ** ** 5% 22% 14% 2% 37% 25% 16% 11% 11% 14%
Less Likely 45% 46% 44% 54% 50% 37% 41% 52% 39% 49% 26% ** ** 64% 32% 48% 71% 8% 40% 31% 70% 46% 44%
No Difference 39% 37% 41% 34% 40% 44% 35% 38% 41% 39% 40% ** ** 31% 43% 38% 27% 52% 35% 53% 19% 43% 40%
Not Sure 1% 2% 1% 0% 3% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 4% ** ** 0% 2% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Familiar With Video 100% 46% 54% 18% 33% 30% 19% 51% 49% 72% 21% 2% 5% 32% 46% 20% 42% 36% 8% 6% 9% 11% 66%
 

** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.

This article was posted in Poll Results by Civitas Staff on June 17, 2010 at 11:11 AM.

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This article can be found at http://www.nccivitas.org/2010/nc-2nd-district-flash-poll/

Comments on this article

  • 1

    william.smith612
    william.smith612 Dec 04, 2010 at 4:58

    Presumably the idea here is to check on how Bob Etheridge, incumbent Democrat, is doing after an ambush video went a bit poorly for him.

    Unfortunately I’m about ready to throw away this poll as useless. This poll also features Libertarian Tom Rose, and he pulls 13% to Etheridge’s 38, and Republican Renee Elmers’s 39 (MoE 4.2). That libertarian seems to skew the whole result a great deal, as the Libertarian voters are less likely to vote at all than the Elmers and Etheridge voters according to the poll.
    SurveyUSA asks people on a scale of 1-10 how likely they are to vote, with 10 being most likely. Ellmers peaks at 9 and pulls in 41% at 10. Etheridge peaks at 5 and pulls in 40$ at 10. Rose peaks at “6-8″ and only pulls in 11% at 10.
    So, all I can pull out of this poll is that it’s close, becuase I think it highly unlikely that a Libertarian will suddenly pull 10% in a district where the Libertarian pulled under 2% last time, to Etheridge’s 67 and the Republican’s 31. So, Etheridge is facing more of a threat this year than last time, even if he could pull in every Libertarian in this poll.

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