July 2012 Poll Results

This poll of 600 registered 2012 general election voters in North Carolina was conducted July 16-18, 2012 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered 2012 general election voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past three general elections (2006, 2008, 2010) or be newly registered to vote since November 2, 2010.

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in at least one of the past three general elections or is newly registered since November 2, 2010.

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  1. And on a scale of one to ten, how likely do you think you are to vote in the November 2012 General election? One means you are not at all likely to vote, five means there is a 50-50 chance you will vote, and ten means it is certain that you will vote in the election in November. Remember you can use any number between one and ten.
    • 91.4%
      10
    • 2.3%
      9
    • 2.5%
      8
    • 1.3%
      7
    • 0.5%
      6
    • 1.7%
      5
    • 0.2%
      3
    • 0.2%
      1
  2. Do you feel things in North Carolina are generally headed in the right direction or have gotten off on the wrong track?
    • 22.2%
      Right Direction
    • 64.6%
      Wrong Track
    • 13.2%
      Don't Know/Refused
  3. And if the election for North Carolina State Legislature were held today, would you be voting for the:
    • 45.5%
      Republican candidate
    • 39.4%
      Democratic candidate
    • 3.1%
      Neither
    • 11.9%
      Don't Know/Refused
  4. Now I am going to read you a list of people and groups active in politics. After I read each name, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you never heard of them, just tell me and we’ll go on to the next one... the first one is: Barack Obama
    • 31.1%
      Very Favorable
    • 14.1%
      Somewhat Favorable
    • 7.8%
      Somewhat Unfavorable
    • 44.2%
      Very Unfavorable
    • 2.6%
      Heard of, no opinion
    • 0.2%
      Never heard of
  5. Mitt Romney
    • 25.7%
      Very Favorable
    • 24.8%
      Somewhat Favorable
    • 11.8%
      Somewhat Unfavorable
    • 31%
      Very Unfavorable
    • 6.3%
      Heard of, no opinion
    • 0.5%
      Never heard of
  6. Pat McCrory
    • 27.3%
      Very Favorable
    • 25.2%
      Somewhat Favorable
    • 9.6%
      Somewhat Unfavorable
    • 13.7%
      Very Unfavorable
    • 14.6%
      Heard of, no opinion
    • 9.6%
      Never heard of
  7. Walter Dalton
    • 10.6%
      Very Favorable
    • 19.5%
      Somewhat Favorable
    • 9.6%
      Somewhat Unfavorable
    • 12.4%
      Very Unfavorable
    • 25.8%
      Heard of, no opinion
    • 22%
      Never heard of
  8. Tea party
    • 16.1%
      Very Favorable
    • 22.4%
      Somewhat Favorable
    • 11.8%
      Somewhat Unfavorable
    • 32%
      Very Unfavorable
    • 14.4%
      Heard of, no opinion
    • 3.5%
      Never heard of
  9. Open-ended: When I mention President Barack Obama, what are the first few things that come to your mind?
  10. Open-ended: And when I mention Mitt Romney, what are the first few things that come to your mind?
  11. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing as President of the United States?
    • 27.3%
      Strongly Approve
    • 19.4%
      Somewhat Approve
    • 8.4%
      Somewhat Disapprove
    • 43.2%
      Strongly Disapprove
    • 1.7%
      Don't Know/Refused
  12. If the election for President of the United States were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: Mitt Romney, the Republican, and Barack Obama, the Democrat?
    • 42.5%
      Definitely Romney
    • 6.1%
      Probably Romney
    • 1.3%
      Lean Romney
    • 3.6%
      Undecided
    • 1.3%
      Lean Obama
    • 4.8%
      Probably Obama
    • 39.4%
      Definitely Obama
    • 0.8%
      Don't Know/Refused
  13. Now, on a different topic, which ONE of the following statements about Mitt Romney's business experience comes closest to your own opinion…
    • 45.4%
      Mitt Romney’s business experience is more of a good thing because he knows what it takes to create jobs, and he has experience managing large organizations, balancing budgets and developing a strategy to make organizations succeed...
    • 35.4%
      Mitt Romney’s business experience is more of a bad thing because his experience comes from making himself and his business partners very wealthy by buying up companies and then laying off people and sending American jobs overseas....
    • 14.2%
      His business experience is not all that relevant to the job of being President.
    • 5%
      Don't Know/Refused
  14. If the election for Governor were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote if the candidates were:
    • 38.9%
      Definitely McCrory
    • 7.8%
      Probably McCrory
    • 2.3%
      Lean McCrory
    • 25.3%
      Definitely Dalton
    • 7.5%
      Probably Dalton
    • 1.7%
      Lean Dalton
    • 1.5%
      Definitely Howe
    • 2.8%
      Probably Howe
    • 0.8%
      Lean Howe
    • 10.6%
      Hard undecided
    • 0.5%
      Other
    • 0.3%
      Don't Know/Refused
  15. If the election for North Carolina Supreme Court were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: Paul Newby or Sam Ervin?
    • 3%
      Definitely Newby
    • 2.6%
      Probably Newby
    • 0.5%
      Lean Newby
    • 69%
      Undecided
    • 1.8%
      Lean Ervin
    • 8.9%
      Probably Ervin
    • 11.3%
      Definitely Ervin
    • 2.8%
      Don't Know/Refused
  16. Open-ended: In your own words, what would you say are the most important attributes a North Carolina Supreme Court Justice should posses?
  17. In May 2012, North Carolina voters voted that Marriage between one man and one woman is the only domestic legal union that shall be valid or recognized in this State. Do you agree or disagree with that vote?
    • 54.1%
      Strongly Agree
    • 7.3%
      Somewhat Agree
    • 6.3%
      Somewhat Disagree
    • 29%
      Strongly Disagree
    • 3.3%
      Don't Know/Refused
  18. A few days later, President Obama made a statement saying that he supported recognizing a union between two men or two women as equal to a marriage between a man and a woman. Do you favor or oppose the president's stance?
    • 25%
      Strongly Favor
    • 8.6%
      Somewhat Favor
    • 6.1%
      Somewhat Oppose
    • 52.6%
      Strongly Oppose
    • 7.6%
      Don't Know/Refused
  19. And does knowing that President Obama supports gay marriage make you more likely to vote for him, less likely to vote for him, or does it make no difference to you?
    • 7.9%
      Much more likely
    • 4.3%
      Somewhat more likely
    • 4.3%
      Somewhat less likely
    • 27.6%
      Much less likely
    • 54.8%
      No Difference
    • 1%
      Don't Know/Refused
  20. Thinking about the economy, in your opinion, how much longer do you think it will take for the economy to improve and the current recession to end? If you think the current recession has ended just say so.
    • 0.8%
      Under 6 months
    • 3.8%
      Between 6 months and a year
    • 19.7%
      Between 1 and 2 years
    • 63.6%
      Over 2 years
    • 3%
      Recession has ended
    • 9.1%
      Don't Know/Refused
  21. Open-ended: And in your own words, what would you say is the single best thing the North Carolina legislature should do to improve the economy and create jobs?
  22. Some North Carolina Legislators are considering a plan to completely eliminate the state personal and corporate income taxes in North Carolina, and make up the lost revenue by expanding the sales tax to services like legal services, accounting services and haircuts. To do this the sales tax rate would likely be raised by a little less than 2 pennies for every dollar of purchase. Do you support or oppose this plan?
    • 19%
      Strongly Support
    • 19.9%
      Somewhat Support
    • 11.1%
      Somewhat Oppose
    • 29.8%
      Strongly Oppose
    • 20.2%
      Don't Know/Refused
  23. Recently Governor Perdue vetoed the state budget passed by the legislature. Please tell me which of the following budgets you prefer:
    • 57.9%
      The State Legislature's vetoed budget which increased state spending on education gave state employees their first pay raise in 4 years and did not raise taxes.
    • 26.3%
      Governor Perdue's budget plan which raised taxes to make up for federal stimulus funds that went to education and are ending this year, gave state employees larger pay raises and increased overall state spending.
    • 5.6%
      Neither
    • 10.1%
      Don't Know/Refused
  24. Do you think your family will be better off or worse off under the health reform law?
    • 28.5%
      Better off
    • 44.4%
      Worse off
    • 12.9%
      About the same
    • 14.2%
      Don't Know/Refused
  25. Split Sample

    • The Supreme Court has ruled that the key provisions of the new federal Affordable Care Act are constitutional. Do you agree or disagree with the Supreme Court decision?
      • 23.8%
        Strongly Agree
      • 15.9%
        Somewhat Agree
      • 6.6%
        Somewhat Disagree
      • 36.1%
        Strongly Disagree
      • 17.5%
        Don't Know/Refused
    • The Supreme Court has ruled that the key provisions of the new federal health care legislation known as Obamacare are constitutional. Do you agree or disagree with the Supreme Court decision?
      • 30.5%
        Strongly Agree
      • 13.2%
        Somewhat Agree
      • 8.6%
        Somewhat Disagree
      • 39.7%
        Strongly Disagree
      • 7.9%
        Don't Know/Refused
  26. Split Sample

    • As you may know, the new federal Affordable Care Act includes a provision that will require all Americans who do not have health insurance to purchase it. If they choose to not get health insurance they will incur a penalty, which the US Supreme Court has deemed a "tax." Do you support or oppose that provision?
      • 22.8%
        Strongly Support
      • 14.2%
        Somewhat Support
      • 7.3%
        Somewhat Oppose
      • 49.7%
        Strongly Oppose
      • 6%
        Don't Know/Refused
    • As you may know, Obamacare includes a provision that will require all Americans who do not have health insurance to purchase it. If they choose to not get health insurance they will incur a penalty, which the US Supreme Court has deemed a "tax." Do you support or oppose that provision?
      • 22.8%
        Strongly Support
      • 11.9%
        Somewhat Support
      • 7.3%
        Somewhat Oppose
      • 49.7%
        Strongly Oppose
      • 8.3%
        Don't Know/Refused
  27. And when voting for our next president, how important is their view on healthcare reform to your overall decision to vote for them?
    • 57.6%
      Very important
    • 28.6%
      Somewhat important
    • 5.6%
      Not very important
    • 4%
      Not at all important
    • 4.1%
      Don't Know/Refused
  28. In what year were you born?
    • 3.3%
      18-25
    • 12.6%
      26-40
    • 28.1%
      41-55
    • 23.8%
      56-65
    • 24.2%
      66+
    • 7.9%
      Don't Know/Refused
  29. In terms of your current employment status, would you say you…
    • 11.4%
      Are self-employed
    • 25.7%
      Work for a private company
    • 10.1%
      Work for Government
    • 6.1%
      Are a Spouse (homemaker)
    • 32.9%
      Are Retired
    • 10.8%
      Are Unemployed
    • 3%
      Don't Know/Refused
  30. If you were to label yourself, would you say you are a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative in your political beliefs?
    • 8.6%
      Very Liberal
    • 10.1%
      Somewhat Liberal
    • 32.1%
      Moderate
    • 20.5%
      Somewhat Conservative
    • 23.5%
      Very Conservative
    • 5.1%
      Don't Know/Refused
  31. Which category best describes your race or ethnicity?
    • 80.1%
      White or Caucasian
    • 14.4%
      African-American
    • 1.3%
      Hispanic or Latino
    • 1.2%
      Native American
    • 0.7%
      Asian/Pacific Islander
    • 1.2%
      Other
    • 1.2%
      Don't Know/Refused
  32. What is the highest level of schooling you completed?
    • 3.8%
      Less than HS Graduate
    • 24%
      High School Graduate
    • 25.2%
      2 yr. College/Technical School
    • 26.7%
      4 yr. College Graduate
    • 16.9%
      Post-Graduate
    • 3.5%
      Don't Know/Refused
  33. Now I am going to read you a range of annual household incomes. When I get to the one that best describes you annual household income, just let me know and I will move on to the next question…
    • 14.4%
      Twenty-five thousand dollars or less
    • 19.7%
      Between 25 and 50 thousand dollars
    • 15.6%
      Between 50 and 75 thousand dollars
    • 13.1%
      Between 75 and 100 thousand dollars
    • 7.9%
      Between 100 and 150 thousand dollars
    • 4.5%
      Between 150 and 200 thousand dollars
    • 2.8%
      Over 200 thousand dollars
    • 22%
      Don't Know/Refused
  34. Gender
    • 48.8%
      Men
    • 51.2%
      Women
  35. Geographic area
    • 20.7%
      Charlotte
    • 14.7%
      Western
    • 18.9%
      Piedmont Triad
    • 22.7%
      Triangle
    • 9.8%
      Northeast
    • 13.2%
      Southeast
  36. Party registration
    • 31.3%
      Republican
    • 43.4%
      Democrat
    • 25.3%
      Independent/Other

This article was posted in Poll Results by Civitas Staff on August 23, 2012 at 12:30 PM.

© 2011 The Civitas Institute. Visit us on the web at www.nccivitas.org.
This article can be found at http://www.nccivitas.org/2012/july-2012-poll-results/

Comments on this article

  • 1

    BARBARA FLEMING
    BARBARA FLEMING Aug 29, 2012 at 8:08

    Your questions were well phrased. I was concerned that 80 percent of the respondents were white with 14% African American and a little over 1% were Hispanics. Let’s find out how the African Americans and Hispanics feel about family life, killing children in the womb when it is the adult’s responsibility to protect against unwanted births, improving our education system, having more money in hand to expand our economy, lower taxes, increasing employment and having a president who repsects the office and we can trust to tell the whole truth.
    I have come to believe that we are not of different races. The only race we have is the human race. Let’s bring back our country to where we can live our lives with less govenment interference and more personal responsibility. Educate …Educate …Educate

  • 2

    maryze foust
    maryze foust Aug 30, 2012 at 12:10

    At this point, many people just want peace.. The country is so divided right now because of the socialist news media stirring hate between the rich and poor.., black and white.. and male and female.. This is how socialist dictators take over .. Our once small differences have become monsters..We must restore sanity to the leadership of this country..I recently read a comment on a news blog.. she said ” I never worked for a poor man.. Poor people have no money to pay you..” How ignorant are people who critize bosses with money? It is the American way for people who are able to earn money to share it through hiring of others.. I am shocked when I hear the number of people who are willing to live on the dole instead of earning their own way..We must give Mitt Romney a chance to restore our country to its rightful position as a Godly country going by our constitution..

  • 3

    Josh
    Josh Sep 19, 2012 at 22:14

    Barbara, I agree it is a problem that so few African-Americans and Latinos answered the survey, but to be honest, the reason tends to be that minorities are less likely to answer a poll than Whites are. It’s unfortunate because not only does it often skew poll results because many of those who are likely voters do not voice their opinion in polls, but also because it shows that fewer minorities are interested (and informed) about politics. I know that I will be voting for Mitt Romney because I have done my research and have learned as much as I could about both candidates, and I hope everyone does the same as I did.

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