Two Weeks to Go, All Knotted Up
Raleigh, N.C. – The race to replace Gov. Mike Easley as North Carolina’s next chief executive is a statistical tie with two weeks remaining until election day according to a new poll released today by the Civitas Institute.
According to the live telephone survey of 600 likely General Election voters, Perdue leads McCrory 41-40 among those who initially voiced support for a candidate. However, when undecided voters are asked which way they lean, the race becomes tied at 43 percent each. Libertarian candidate Michael Munger receives two percent of the vote. 12 percent of voters remained undecided.
“This race could not get any closer,” said Francis De Luca, Executive Director of the Civitas Institute. “Our poll results two weeks away from the election are virtually identical to the results we had immediately after the primary in May. Neither candidate has been able to gain any significant lead.”
One possible glimpse into the eventual outcome of the race comes from how initially undecided voters fall when asked if they lean in a certain candidate’s direction. McCrory is winning these undecided voters by a 2:1 margin.
“This race will be decided by a very small number of votes on election day. With twelve percent of the voters still undecided and neither candidate able to break through, the last few days are going to be critical for these campaigns,” concluded De Luca.
Previous Civitas Poll results:
May – Perdue 43, McCrory 42
June – Perdue 43, McCrory 41, Munger 2
July – Perdue 43, McCrory 40, Munger 2
August – Perdue 43, McCrory 41, Munger 3
September – McCrory 43, Perdue 41, Munger 3
October 8th – McCrory 43, Perdue 41, Munger 2
The Civitas poll is the only recurring, live interviewer, poll on issues and politics in North Carolina.
The study of 600 registered voters was conducted October 18-20 by Tel Opinion Research of Alexandria, Virginia. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters we interviewed had to have voted in either the 2002, 2004 or 2006 general election or were newly registered voters since 2006. The voters were interviewed using live callers.
The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95% of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4.2% of the “True Values.” “True Values” refer to the results obtained if were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in either the 2002, 2004 or 2006 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2006.
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