Raleigh, N.C. – Democratic State Senator Kay Hagan has taken her first lead in her race against incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Elizabeth Dole according to a new poll released today by the Civitas Institute.
According to the live telephone survey of 600 likely General Election voters, Hagan leads Dole 43-38 among those who initially voiced support for a candidate. When undecided voters are asked which way they lean, Hagan’s lead narrows to 45-42. Libertarian candidate Chris Cole receives three percent of the vote. 10 percent of voters remained undecided.
“This is the first time our poll shows Kay Hagan with a lead,” said Francis De Luca, Executive Director of the Civitas Institute. “The millions spent on negative advertising by the Democratic Senatorial Committee and others attacking Senator Dole is finally paying dividends.”
Hagan’s ability to take the lead is coming from three areas: a decrease in the number of Democrats supporting Dole (-5% from last month), an increase in the Republicans supporting Hagan (+3% from last month), and a slight uptick in unaffiliated voters moving towards Hagan (+1 from last month).
“The intensity and harshness of the advertising is still increasing,” added De Luca. “Hagan and the groups supporting her candidacy have been very successful over the past couple of weeks in damaging Dole. The question now is, is there enough time for the Dole campaign to paint Hagan as an unacceptable alternative.”
The Civitas Poll is the only monthly, live interviewer, poll on issues and politics conducted in North Carolina.
The study of 600 registered voters was conducted October 6-8 by Tel Opinion Research of Alexandria, Virginia. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters we interviewed had to have voted in either the 2002, 2004 or 2006 general election or were newly registered voters since 2006. The voters were interviewed using live callers.
The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95% of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4.2% of the “True Values.” “True Values” refer to the results obtained if were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in either the 2002, 2004 or 2006 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2006.
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