No Convention Bounce Apparent for Either Candidate
Raleigh, N.C. – A special edition of Civitas’ monthly poll conducted using all registered voters shows neither candidate for President receiving a post-convention bounce in the polls.
“The excitement of the two respective national party conventions produced no changes in the race for President in North Carolina,” stated Francis De Luca, Executive Director of the Civitas Institute. “Unlike many other states, the race remains close with McCain holding a lead.”
According to the live-interviewer poll of 600 registered voters, McCain led Obama 43%-42% with Libertarian candidate Bob Barr receiving 2%. With leaners included, McCain leads 47%-44%, 8 percent remain undecided.
“It was somewhat surprising given the post-convention bounce McCain has received in other states that a similar bounce is not evident in North Carolina. By the low number of undecided voters, it appears most North Carolinians have already made up their minds and nothing they saw from either candidate’s convention did anything to change it. Our polling is still indicating that North Carolina will again go Republican at the presidential level.” De Luca concluded.
Please note that this survey was conducted with a slightly different methodology than Civitas’ regularly monthly polls. This survey was conducted of all registered voters who were then asked their likelihood to vote in the upcoming General Election. Our regular monthly poll, the only monthly live interviewer poll conducted in North Carolina, will continue to select a likely voter sample of voters with a previous history of voting in the 2002, 2004 or 2006 General Election or having registered to vote since the 2006 General Election and are then screened to determine their intentions to vote in the upcoming General Election.
The study of 600 registered voters was conducted September 6-10, 2008. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina. Voters were screened for being likely to vote in November.
The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95% of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4.2% of the True Values. True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had registered to vote.
If you would like more information regarding this topic or to schedule an interview with Francis De Luca or Chris Hayes, please call Gabe Dellinger at 919.747.8065 or email at Gabe.Dellinger@nccivitas.org.