NC Poll: Obama Takes Lead in NC

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Race once tied, now McCain trails by 5 points

Raleigh, N.C. – Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama has opened up a 5 point lead in the race for President in North Carolina according to a new poll released today by the Civitas Institute.

According to the live telephone survey of 600 likely General Election voters, Obama leads McCain 46-39 among those who initially voiced support for a candidate. However, when undecided voters are asked which way they lean, Obama’s lead shrinks to 48-43. Libertarian candidate Bob Barr receives two percent of the vote. Seven percent of voters remained undecided.

“The amount of money Obama is spending on television in North Carolina is finally paying dividends,” said Francis De Luca, Executive Director of the Civitas Institute. “Obama’s ability to capitalize on the financial crisis and to outspend McCain in North Carolina gives him a strong advantage.”

Obama’s advantage comes from his increased share of unaffiliated voters where he has now opened up a 9 point lead (49-40). He has also begun to solidify his base Democratic vote, shaving the percentage of Democrats voting for McCain down from 22% two weeks ago to 17% this week.

“One of the theories we’ve advanced is that for Obama to win North Carolina he needed to obtain 37% of the white voters. In this poll he is now receiving that amount,” added De Luca. “McCain has a lot of ground to make up and not much time to do so.”

Previous Civitas Poll results:
February – McCain 46, Obama 36
April – McCain 48, Obama 39
May – McCain 44, Obama 39
June – McCain 45, Obama 41, Barr 2
July – McCain 43, Obama 40, Barr 2
August – McCain 46, Obama 40, Barr 2
September – McCain 45, Obama 45, Barr 2

Click here for full results and crosstabs.

The Civitas poll is the only recurring, live interviewer, poll on issues and politics in North Carolina.

The study of 600 registered voters was conducted October 6-8 by Tel Opinion Research of Alexandria, Virginia. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters we interviewed had to have voted in either the 2002, 2004 or 2006 general election or were newly registered voters since 2006. The voters were interviewed using live callers.

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95% of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4.2% of the “True Values.” “True Values” refer to the results obtained if were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in either the 2002, 2004 or 2006 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2006.


If you would like more information regarding this topic please contact Chris Hayes at (919) 834-2099 or

This article was posted in Press Releases by efield on October 9, 2008 at 3:48 PM.

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