Raleigh, N.C. – Democratic nominee Dewey Hudson is leading the state Senate District 10 race against Republican opponent Brent Jackson according to a new SurveyUSA poll released today by the Civitas Institute.
According to the poll of 350 registered voters in that district, 44 percent of voters said that if the election for state Senator were held today they would vote for Hudson. Thirty-six percent said they would vote for Jackson, and 19 percent said they were undecided.
However, among voters who say they are definitely voting in November, the numbers are virtually tied between the Hudson and Jackson camps for retiring Sen. Charles Albertson’s seat. Forty-three percent of those most likely to vote said they would vote for Hudson. Forty-two percent said they would vote for Jackson and 15 percent said they were undecided.
“This is a leaning-Democratic district, but is shaping up to be a competitive race due to the retirement of Sen. Albertson and the potentially strong year Republicans could have across North Carolina,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes. “Both candidates have a similar net favorable rating among voters having benefited from a competitive primary to increase their name identification”
Senate District 10 is rated as a D+3 district on Civitas’ North Carolina Partisan Index – an index that rates the relative partisan voting habits of individual legislative districts. For more on the NCPI, click here. 2008 Republican Presidential candidate John McCain carried the district by a 53-47 margin over Barack Obama.
The two candidates’ favorable ratings are close as well – subtracting a candidate’s unfavorable rating from his favorable rating produces a net favorable number. Hudson is seen favorably by 27 percent of the district’s voters while only 16 percent have an unfavorable opinion, giving him a net favorability rating of +11.
Jackson has a net favorability +10 after having been seen favorably by 20 percent of voters and unfavorably by 10 percent of voters.
“This district shows how critical voter turnout can be in non-Presidential years,” added Hayes. “If Democratic voter enthusiasm remains low, this is a district Republicans could pick up.”
For full results and crosstabs from the poll, click here.
The survey of 350 registered voters was taken May 16-18 by SurveyUSA on behalf of the Civitas Institute using the Interactive Voice Response (IVR) method. It carries a margin of error of 4.9%.
This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S. Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ.