Raleigh, N.C. – Unaffiliated voters in North Carolina continue to lean toward incumbent Republican US Sen. Richard Burr by a 39 percent-32 percent margin against Democratic opponent Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, according to a new National Research Inc. poll released today by the Civitas Institute.
According to the live caller poll of 400 unaffiliated likely voters, 39 percent said they would vote for Burr if the election for US Senate were held today. Thirty-two percent said they would vote for Marshall, and 7 percent said they would vote for Libertarian candidate Michael Beitler. Twenty-one percent of voters said they are undecided.
Among voters who said they are most likely to vote in 2010, Burr’s lead increases to 44 percent-29 percent.
“Unaffiliated voters across the state who, in the 2008 election cycle, voted for President Obama and Senator Hagan are now increasingly leaning toward Republican candidates,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes.
Thirty-seven percent of unaffiliated voters said they have a favorable opinion of Burr. Thirty-one percent said their opinion is unfavorable and 25 percent of voters said they have no opinion. Six percent said they have never heard of Burr.
Marshall’s favorability margin among unaffiliated voters is 23 percent favorable-17 percent unfavorable. However, 26 percent of voters said they have no opinion of Marshall, and 34 percent said they have never heard of her.
“Although Marshall has served in North Carolina political office for several years, voters still appear unsure of who she is,” added Hayes. “There is still time for both candidates to increase their name identification among undecided unaffiliated voters, but Marshall’s lack of resources puts her at a serious disadvantage.”
The Civitas Poll is the only monthly live-caller poll of critical issues facing North Carolina. For more information on Civitas polling see www.nccivitas.org/media/poll-results/.
Full text of questions:
“If the election for US Senate were held today, for whom would you vote between: Richard Burr, the Republican; Elaine Marshall, the Democrat; or Michael Beitler, the Libertarian?
Richard Burr – 39%
Elaine Marshall – 32%
Michael Beitler – 7%
Lean/Undecided – 21%
“Now I am going to read you a list of people active in politics. After I read each name, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you never heard of them, just tell me and we’ll go on to the next one.”
Favorable – 37%
Unfavorable – 31%
No Opinion – 25%
Never Heard Of – 6%
Favorable – 23%
Unfavorable – 17%
No Opinion – 26%
Never Heard Of – 34%
Click here for full results and crosstabs.
This poll of 400 unaffiliated likely general election voters in North Carolina was conducted August 16-18 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in two of the past four general elections or were newly registered to vote since 2008. An additional screening question was asked to filter only those voters having some likelihood to vote in the upcoming 2010 election.
The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 400 interviews (registered unaffiliated voters) will be within +/- 4.9% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in two of the past four general elections or were newly registered to vote since 2008.