Raleigh, N.C. – Democratic incumbent Grier Martin holds a narrow four point lead over opponent Steve Henion in the state House District 34 race, according to a new SurveyUSA poll released today by the Civitas Institute.
According to the poll of 350 registered voters in that district, comprised of Wake County, 47 percent of voters said they would vote for Martin if the election for state representative were today. Forty-three percent of voters said they would vote for Henion, and 10 percent said they are undecided.
However, Martin’s lead shrinks to a virtual tie (47 percent-47 percent) when looking at those who are most likely to vote in 2010. In addition, unaffiliated voters support Henion by 45 percent-35 percent margin.
“This race becomes very close among those who are planning to vote this fall,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes. “And as enthusiasm and momentum are behind Republicans across the state, Henion could see a boost in his numbers.”
Martin, now serving his third House term, has the advantage in name recognition among voters as 44 percent of voters have an opinion of him (31 percent favorable-13 percent unfavorable), for a +18 favorable rating. Thirty-two percent of voters said they are neutral, and 25 percent said they have no opinion of his candidacy.
Meanwhile, Henion has a -2 favorability rating as 13 percent of voters view him favorably while 15 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Thirty-two percent of voters said their opinion is neutral, and 40 percent said they have no opinion on his campaign for state representative.
“This race may come down to the large number of undecided voters and which candidate can effectively share their message before November,” added Hayes.
House District 34 is rated as a D+1 district on Civitas’ North Carolina Partisan Index – an index that rates the relative partisan voting habits of individual legislative districts. For more on the NCPI, click here.
For full results and crosstabs from the poll, click here.
The survey of 350 registered voters was taken August 31-September 1 by SurveyUSA on behalf of the Civitas Institute using the Interactive Voice Response (IVR) method. It carries a margin of error of 5.3%.
This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S. Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ.