Raleigh, N.C. – Democratic legislative candidates have experienced a 20 percent drop in support among unaffiliated voters since 2008, according to a new National Research Inc. poll released today by the Civitas Institute.
According to the live caller poll of 400 unaffiliated likely voters, 39 percent of voters said they would be voting Republican if the election for State Legislator were held today. Twenty-seven percent said they would vote Democrat and 15 percent of voters said neither. Eighteen percent of voters said they did not know for whom they would vote.
This represents a 20 percentage point drop in support for Democrats on the generic ballot since Civitas’ October 2008 poll when Democrats led by a 37 percent-29 percent margin (+8 to -12 percent).
“We are seeing a tremendous shift away from the Democratic party in North Carolina among unaffiliated voters this election cycle,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes. “Unaffiliateds, who mirrored Democratic voters two years ago in their issue priorities and ballot, are now heavily backing Republican candidates.”
Among those voters who are most likely to vote in 2010, Republican support increases to a 42 percent-27 percent margin. Contrasting this, in October 2008, 47 percent of voters said they would vote Democratic for state legislature, while 37 percent said they would vote Republican.
“While the sluggish economy and big spending in Washington on the stimulus and the bailouts have turned off many unaffiliated voters, nothing has done more to drive unaffiliated voters away from Democratic candidates than the health care reform bill President Obama has trumpeted as his crowning achievement,” added Hayes.
The Civitas Poll is the only monthly live-caller poll of critical issues facing North Carolina. For more information on Civitas polling see www.nccivitas.org/media/poll-results/.
Full text of question:
“And if the election for State Legislator were held today, would you be voting:”
Republican – 39%
Democratic – 27%
Neither – 15%
Don’t Know – 18%
Click here for full results and crosstabs.
This poll of 400 unaffiliated likely general election voters in North Carolina was conducted August 16-18 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in two of the past four general elections or were newly registered to vote since 2008. An additional screening question was asked to filter only those voters having some likelihood to vote in the upcoming 2010 election.
The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 400 interviews (registered unaffiliated voters) will be within +/- 4.9% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in two of the past four general elections or were newly registered to vote since 2008.