Raleigh, N.C. – In the election for North Carolina’s 93rd House District seat, Republican candidate Jonathan Jordan is ahead of Democratic Rep. Cullie Tarleton, according to a new SurveyUSA poll released today by the Civitas Institute.
According to the poll of 350 registered voters in that district, which covers Ashe and Watauga counties, 48 percent of voters said they would vote for Jordan if the election for state representative were held today. Forty-six percent said they would vote for Tarleton, and six percent said they are undecided.
When looking at those who are most likely voting in 2010, Jordan’s lead increases to a 51 percent-46 percent margin.
“While Tarleton is better known because he is the incumbent, the nationwide trend is favoring Republicans, and in this leaning Republican district, Tarleton is going to have a fight on his hands to keep the seat,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes.
Tarleton, currently serving his second House term, seems to be capitalizing upon his advantage as incumbent in name recognition among voters. Sixty-five percent of voters in the district have an opinion of him (38 percent favorable-27 percent favorable), for a net favorability rating +11. Twenty-six percent of voters said their opinion is neutral, and nine percent said they have no opinion.
Meanwhile, Jordan holds a +4 favorable rating as 26 percent of voters have an opinion of him (15 percent favorable-11 percent unfavorable). Forty percent of the district’s voters said their opinion is neutral, and 33 percent said they have no opinion of his candidacy.
“This race has every indication it is going to go down to the wire and could very well be one of the key seats that determine the balance of power in the North Carolina House next year,” added Hayes.
House District 93 is rated as an R+3 district on Civitas’ North Carolina Partisan Index – an index that rates the relative partisan voting habits of individual legislative districts. For more on the NCPI, click here.
Additionally, the poll found that only 31 percent of the district’s voters think the state is headed in the right direction compared to 51 percent who say it is on the wrong track.
Seventy-seven percent of voters said spending should be cut to close the gap in a $3 billion budget shortfall while 16 percent of voters said taxes should be increased to close the gap.
For full results and crosstabs from the poll, click here.
The survey of 350 registered voters was taken September 22-23 by SurveyUSA on behalf of the Civitas Institute using the Interactive Voice Response (IVR) method. It carries a margin of error of +/- 5.3%.
This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield, CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S. Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ.