Raleigh, N.C. – Republican Wesley Meredith leads Democratic incumbent Margaret Dickson by 5 percentage points according to a new poll released today by the Civitas Institute, however a large portion of voters remain undecided.
According to the live-caller poll of 300 registered voters in that district, comprised of Cumberland and Bladen counties, Meredith leads 38 percent to 33 percent. However, 29 percent of voters were undecided with little time left before Election Day.
Among voters who say they are definitely voting this year, Meredith’s lead grows to 12 points, 43 percent to 31 percent.
“While Meredith holds a small lead with all voters, the number of undecided voters is very high, meaning this race is wide open heading into the final weekend,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes. “The intensity appears to be on Meredith’s side, but it’s going to come down to a matter of which candidate can convince these last voters.”
Dickson is suffering from a net negative opinion of voters. While she is known by 76 percent of voters in the district, 59 percent of those voters have either no opinion or a negative opinion of Dickson. Only 16 percent of voters have a favorable opinion.
Meredith is similarly known by 74 percent of the voters, yet 38 percent of all voters have a favorable opinion of him. Thirty-six percent have an unfavorable opinion.
“While Dickson is the long-serving incumbent, Meredith is actually the better known candidate,” added Hayes. “This race is going to go down to the wire.”
Senate District 19 is rated as a D+4 district on the Civitas Partisan Index – an index that rates the relative partisan voting habits of individual legislative districts. For more on the CPI, click here.
For full results and crosstabs from the poll, click here.
The survey of 300 registered voters was taken October 20-21 by Cherry Communications on behalf of the Civitas Institute using live-caller interviews. It carries a margin of error of +/- 5.1%.