Raleigh, N.C. – A new poll released today by the Civitas Institute reveals that Republican candidates are currently leading Democrats by 11 percent on the state legislative generic ballot, the largest lead in the history of Civitas polling.
According to the poll of 600 likely voters, when asked if they would vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate if the election for State Legislature were held today, 44 percent said they would vote for the Republican. Thirty-three percent of voters said they would vote for the Democratic candidate, and six percent said neither. Fifteen percent of voters said they do not know.
This represents a five percentage point increase (39 percent to 44 percent) in support for Republican candidates since a July 2010 Civitas poll. Democratic candidates saw a six percent decrease in support (39 percent to 33 percent).
“The political tide flowing towards Republicans seems to be picking up steam as we head into prime election season,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes. “Meanwhile, Democratic enthusiasm has greatly waned since the 2008 election, prompting the question of whether or not the party can get their voters to the polls in November.”
Additionally, unaffiliated voters, the fastest growing voter segment in the state, are heavily backing Republican candidates by a 49 percent-14 percent margin.
“Unaffiliated voters, who resembled Democrats two years ago, are now abandoning the party in large numbers,” added Hayes. “With unaffiliated support for Democrats in the low teens, it could result in many more competitive races in legislative seats that were thought to be Democratic safeholds.”
The Civitas Poll is the only monthly live-caller poll of critical issues facing North Carolina. For more information on Civitas polling see www.nccivitas.org/media/poll-results/.
Full Text of Questions:
“And if the election for State Legislature were held today, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?”
Republican – 44% (+5 from July)
Democrat – 33% (-6 from July)
Neither – 6% (-2 from July)
Don’t Know – 15% (+1 from July)
For full results and crosstabs from the poll, click here.
This poll of 600 likely general election voters in North Carolina was conducted September 15-17, 2010 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in two of the past four general elections or were newly registered to vote since 2008. An additional screening question was asked to filter only those voters having some likelihood to vote in the upcoming 2010 election.
The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +/- 4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in two of the past four general elections or were newly registered to vote since 2008.