Civitas Poll: In Potential Matchup, Texas Gov. Rick Perry Ahead of Obama

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Raleigh, N.C. – Texas Republican Gov. Rick Perry leads Barack Obama 45 percent to 42 percent among North Carolina voters in a potential presidential matchup, according to a new poll released by the Civitas Institute.

Forty-five percent of voters said they are leaning towards or would vote for Gov. Rick Perry if the election for President of the United States was being held today and the candidates were Perry, the Republican, and Barack Obama, the Democrat.  Forty-two percent said they are leaning towards or would vote for Obama, and 9 percent said they are undecided.

“For the President to be trailing an unannounced candidate in a state he barely won in 2012 has to be concerning for the Obama team,” said Civitas Institute President Francis De Luca.  “If Obama is hoping to catch lightning again and win North Carolina, he is going to have to hope for a weaker opponent than Gov. Perry or a big bounce from having the Democratic National Convention here next year.”

Republican (81 percent Perry – 8 percent Obama) and Democratic voter (17 percent Perry – 69 percent Obama) support falls along party lines between the potential candidates.  Unaffiliated voters, the fastest growing voter segment in the state, would choose Perry over Obama by a 53 percent to 32 percent margin.

“As in 2008 and 2010, the unaffiliated voters will probably determine the outcome of the 2012 election,” added De Luca.

Looking at key regions in North Carolina, Obama garners support in the Triangle (48 percent) and Northeast (50 percent), while voters in Western North Carolina (56 percent), Piedmont Triad (46 percent) and the Southeast (49 percent) would choose Perry for president.  Additionally, Perry leads among the 18-25 age demographic by a 60 percent to 23 percent margin.

The Civitas Poll is the only regular live-caller poll of critical issues facing North Carolina.  For more information on Civitas polling see

Full Text of Question:

“If the election for President of the United States was being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: Rick Perry, the Republican, and Barack Obama, the Democrat?”

Total Perry – 45%

Total Obama – 42%

Lean/Undecided – 12%

Definitely Perry – 35%

Probably Perry – 11%

Lean Perry – 2%

Undecided – 9%

Lean Obama – 1%

Probably Obama – 6%

Definitely Obama – 36%

Refused – 1%

Click here for full results and crosstabs.

This poll of 600 registered general election voters in North Carolina was conducted July 12-13, 2011 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ.  All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina.  For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past three general elections (2006, 2008, 2010) or be newly registered to vote since November 2, 2010.

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in at least one of the past three general elections or is newly registered since November 2, 2010.


This article was posted in Press Releases by Katie Trout on July 18, 2011 at 10:09 AM.

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Comments on this article

  • 1

    Glenn Koons, LB, Ca.
    Glenn Koons, LB, Ca. Jul 18, 2011 at 15:23

    Perry should not only be ahead here in NC but in many Purple states too. The issues like Obamacare, Libya, tax-spend-regulate, no border or illegal immigrant solutions, absolutely no domestic energy solutions for our huge supplies of gas, oil, shale, and coal plus safe nuclear plant building are all issues that Obama has goofed and been wrong on. Perry or whoever should slam that home to all voters in every US state. As Bama would say, all 57 of them!!LOL

  • 2

    meofcourse Jul 18, 2011 at 16:42

    “Perry leads among the 18-25 age demographic by a 60 percent to 23 percent margin.”

    Yeah, the kids love Rick Perry! LOL, something is seriously wrong with this poll. If Perry were beating Obama by 27 points among young voters his statewide margin would have to be at least that much.

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