RALEIGH — With the 2012 legislative campaigns entering the final months, the Civitas Institute has flash-polled likely voters in North Carolina House District 65, which includes Caswell County and part of Rockingham County. The incumbent representative, Bert Jones, leads Democratic standard-bearer William E. Osborne, a psychologist and businessman.
The Civitas Flash Poll of 300 registered voters with a margin of error of 5.8 percent was taken Sept. 11-12. It showed Jones with a 19 percentage-point lead over Osborne, 56 percent to 37 percent. Democrats are supporting Osborne 62 percent to 29 percent; Jones leads among Republican voters 89 percent to 6 percent. Unaffiliated voters favor Jones, 77 percent to 22 percent.
In the presidential race, among district voters Mitt Romney is ahead of President Obama, 50 percent to 41 percent. Romney is capturing 89 percent of Republicans and 51 percent of unaffiliated voters. Romney is pulling 25 percent of the Democratic vote, with 68 percent supporting Obama.
Republican gubernatorial candidate Pat McCrory leads in most statewide polls, and that holds true in House Dist. 65. He leads Democratic Lt. Governor Walter Dalton 53 percent to 34 percent, with Libertarian Barbara Howe registering 5 percent. In the district, Republicans break 85 percent for McCrory and 33 percent of Democrats indicate they would vote for him. Among unaffiliated voters, McCrory leads Dalton 61 to 15 percent.
By a better than 2-to-1 margin, district voters agree that people should be required to show photo identification to cast their ballots. Sixty-eight percent of those polled said voters should be required to present photo ID; 29 percent opposed the requirement.
In the Civitas Flash Poll, 55 percent said the state is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 34 percent saying it’s headed in the right direction. In addition, asked about how the North Carolina economy will fare this year, 30 percent said things will get worse and 28 percent said things will get worse, while 33 percent said it would stay the same.
Overall, voter intensity in the district was strong among all voters, with 97 percent saying they are certain they will vote, and 3 percent saying they are likely to vote. This suggests that neither side will have a problem turning out their voters on Election Day.
Click here for crosstabs.
Information on future polls will be available at Civitas Poll Lunches later in September.
About the Poll: This poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Where necessary, respondents were weighted using the most recent US Census estimates for age, gender, ethnic origin and region, to align the sample to the population. Research methodology, questionnaire design and fieldwork for this survey were completed by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.
More information on the Civitas Institute is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099.