Aug. 24, 2012
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Francis De Luca or Jim Tynen (919) 834-2099
Francis.DeLuca@NCCivitas.org or James.Tynen@NCCivitas.org
RALEIGH — With the 2012 legislative campaigns entering the final months the Civitas Institute has flash-polled likely voters in House District 51 in Lee County and part of Harnett County. The seat is currently held by Republican Mike Stone, a Sanford businessman. He is being challenged by Democrat Bill Tatum, who is retired after owning businesses in Sanford.
The survey of 305 likely voters with a margin of error of 5.3 percent was taken August 18 and 19. It showed Stone with a 10-point lead over Tatum, 50 percent to 40 percent. Democrats are supporting Tatum 67 percent to 19 percent; Stone leads in Republican voters, 86 percent to 7 percent. Unaffiliated voters, which make up one-fifth of voters in this district, are breaking to Stone by a 24-point margin, with 59 percent backing him, compared to 35 percent for Tatum.
Republicans are running strongly in the district with Pat McCrory and Mitt Romney holding sizable leads. In the presidential contest, Mitt Romney is leading President Obama 59 percent to 33 percent. Romney is capturing 95 percent of the Republicans and 59 percent of unaffiliated voters. Romney is pulling 32 percent of the Democratic vote, with that bloc of voters breaking 57 percent for President Obama.
In the gubernatorial contest, Republican McCrory is holding an even larger lead over Lt. Governor Walter Dalton, 60 percent to 34 percent, with Libertarian Barbara Howe registering 2 percent. McCrory’s numbers track very closely to Romney’s, with Republicans breaking 90 percent for McCrory and 37 percent of Democrats indicating they would vote for McCrory. He also is running very strongly with unaffiliated voters, winning them almost 2-to-1, with 62 percent backing the GOP standard-bearer compared to 33 percent for Dalton.
By an overwhelming margin, district voters agree that people should be required to show photo identification. Seventy-eight percent of those polled said voters should be required to present photo ID; only 19 percent opposed the requirement.
Forty-five percent of voters in the district view themselves as conservatives compared with only 7 percent who view themselves as liberals. Forty percent self-identify as moderates.
More than half of the voters think the state is on the wrong track, with 59 percent saying it’s headed in the wrong direction to 32 percent saying it’s headed in the right direction. In addition, voters’ opinion on the economy is split with 24 percent saying things will get worse and 24 percent saying things will get better, while 46 percent said it would stay the same
Overall, voter intensity in the district was strong among all voters, indicating that neither side will have a problem turning out their voters on Election Day.
Click here for crosstabs.
About the Poll: This poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. The pollster’s report includes the geography that was surveyed; the date(s) interviews were conducted, the number of respondents who answered each question and the theoretical margin of sampling error for each question. Where necessary, respondents were weighted using the most recent US Census estimates for age, gender, ethnic origin and region, to align the sample to the population. Research methodology, questionnaire design and fieldwork for this survey were completed by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
The Civitas Poll is the only regular live-caller poll of critical issues facing North Carolina. For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.
Information on future polls will be available at Civitas Poll Lunches later this month and in September.
More information on the Civitas Institute is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099.