Civitas Poll: GOP Voters Not Making Decision Clear – Runoffs Likely

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May 3, 2012
CONTACT: Jim Tynen (919) 834-2099

Raleigh, N.C. – According to recent a recent Civitas Institute poll, One-Stop Votingshows GOP sentiment remains uncertain in next week’s primaries for Lt. Governor, State Auditor and Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Only the race for Lt. Governor has a clear front-runner, with 23 percent of those who voted early in the Republican primary saying they cast their ballots for state Rep. Dale Folwell for Lieutenant Governor. Also in that contest, businessman Dan Forest and Wake County Commissioner Tony Gurley were each backed by 10 percent of the early voters. State Rep. Grey Mills and businessman Arthur Rich trailed.

In the running for Auditor General, the survey showed GOP early voting led by Wake County School Board member Debra Goldman with 15 percent, followed by Rudy Wright, mayor of Hickory, at 8 percent. Former state legislator Fern Shubert and businessman Greg Dority garnered 5 percent each. Joseph Hank DeBragga, an auditor, lagged behind.

Wake County school board member John Tedesco led the GOP slate for Superintendent of Public Instruction, getting support from 16 percent of the early GOP voters. David Scholl and Richard Alexander, both with business backgrounds, each took 7 percent of the early vote. Mark Crawford, an educator, and school teacher Ray Earnest Martin both showed lesser support.

“Our April 30-May 2 poll of those who voted by mail or through One-Stop Absentee Voting failed to show any clear trend,” said Civitas President Francis De Luca. “There’s still room for Republican primary candidates to appeal to voters in these races. Most likely winners on May 8th will end up in a runoff election later this summer.”

The Civitas Poll is the only regular live-caller poll of critical issues facing North Carolina.  For more information on Civitas polling, see

Full text of questions:

One Stop Voters:

And can you please tell me who you voted for Lieutenant Governor?

23%     Dale Folwell
10%     Dan Forest
10%     Tony Gurley
4%       Grey Mills
2%       Arthur Rich
50%     Other

And can you please tell me who you voted for State Auditor?

—         Joseph Hank DeBragga
5%       Greg Dority
15%     Debra Goldman
5%       Fern Shubert
8%       Rudy Wright
67%     Other

And can you please tell me who you voted for Superintendent of Public Instruction?

—         Ray Ernest Martin
7%       David Scholl
16%     John Tedesco
7%       Richard Alexander
2%       Mark Crawford
67%     Other

Election Day Voters:

If the Republican Primary for Lieutenant Governor were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between:

13%     Dale Folwell
12%     Dan Forest
6%       Tony Gurley
6%       Grey Mills
1%       Arthur Rich
55%     Undecided

If the Republican Primary for State Auditor were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between:

1%       Joseph Hank DeBragga
7%       Greg Dority
5%       Debra Goldman
2%       Fern Shubert
3%       Rudy Wright
73%     Undecided

If the Republican Primary for Superintendent of Public Instruction were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between:

2%       Ray Ernest Martin
3%       David Scholl
9%       John Tedesco
5%       Richard Alexander
4%       Mark Crawford
68%     Undecided

For the full results and crosstabs, click here.

These two polls were each of 400 registered voters who were likely primary voters in their respective primaries in North Carolina and was conducted between April 30 and May 2, 2012 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ.  All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered 2012 primary election voters in North Carolina.  For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two primary elections (2008, 2010) or be newly registered to vote since May 1, 2010.

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 400 interviews (registered voters) will be within +- 4.9% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in at least one of the past two primary elections or is newly registered to vote since May 1, 2010.

More information on the Civitas Institute is available at, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099.

About Jim Tynen

Communications director at Civitas.
This article was posted in Press Releases by Jim Tynen on May 3, 2012 at 2:55 PM.

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