RALEIGH — With the 2012 legislative campaigns entering the final months, the Civitas Institute has flash-polled likely voters in NC Senate District 15 in Wake County. Republican Sen. Neal Hunt faces businessman Sig Hutchinson, the Democratic candidate.
The survey of 450 registered voters with a margin of error of 4.7 percent was taken August 18 and 19. It showed incumbent Hunt with a 15 percentage-point lead over Hutchinson, 52 percent to 37 percent. Democrats are supporting Hutchinson 69 percent to 20 percent; Hunt leads among Republican voters 84 percent to 8 percent. Unaffiliated voters, which make up 29 percent of voters in this district, are breaking to Hunt by a 13-point margin, with 47 percent backing him, compared to 34 percent for the Democrat.
At the top of the ballot, Republicans hold leads among Senate Dist. 15 voters. In the presidential race, in the district Mitt Romney leads President Obama, 51 percent to 42 percent. Romney is capturing 88 percent of Dist. 15 Republicans and 45 percent of unaffiliated voters. Romney is pulling 16 percent of the Democratic vote, with that bloc of Wake County voters breaking 80 percent for President Obama.
Republican gubernatorial candidate Pat McCrory leads in statewide polls, and that holds true in the district. He leads Democratic Lt. Governor Walter Dalton 54 percent to 36 percent, with Libertarian Barbara Howe registering 6 percent. In the poll, McCrory’s numbers track closely to Romney’s, with Republicans breaking 87 percent for McCrory and 19 percent of Democrats indicating they would vote for him. Among independents, McCrory leads Dalton 53 to 26 percent.
By a 2-to-1 margin, district voters agree that people should be required to show photo identification to cast their ballots. Sixty-six percent of those polled said voters should be required to present photo ID; 32 percent opposed the requirement.
In the flash poll, 59 percent said the state is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 29 percent saying it’s headed in the right direction. In addition, voters’ opinion on the economy was split, with 22 percent saying things will get worse and 25 percent saying things will get better, while 44 percent said it would stay the same.
Overall, voter intensity in the district was strong among all voters, with 96 percent saying they are certain they will vote. This indicates that neither side will have a problem turning out their voters on Election Day.
Click here for crosstabs.
Information on future polls will be available at Civitas Poll Lunches on Thursday, Aug. 30, in Raleigh and in September.
About the Poll: This poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Where necessary, respondents were weighted using the most recent US Census estimates for age, gender, ethnic origin and region, to align the sample to the population. Research methodology, questionnaire design and fieldwork for this survey were completed by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
The Civitas Poll is the only regular live-caller poll of critical issues facing North Carolina. For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.
More information on the Civitas Institute is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099.