Sept. 28, 2012
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Brian Balfour (919) 834-2099
Raleigh, N.C. – A new Civitas Poll of likely voters shows that Republican gubernatorial candidate Pat McCrory has an 11 percentage-point lead over the Democrat in the race, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton.
The Civitas Poll of 600 likely North Carolina voters was taken Sept. 18-19 and had a margin of error of plus-minus 4 percent.
McCrory was supported by 49 percent of those polled, Dalton by 38 percent. In Civitas Polls in May and July, McCrory held 10 percentage-point leads.
In the most recent survey, Libertarian candidate Barbara Howe was the choice of 3 percent.
Text of questions**:
If the election for Governor were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between:
5/12 7/12 9/12
48% 47% 49% Pat McCrory, the Republican
38% 37% 38% Walter Dalton, the Democrat
* 5% 3% Barbara Howe, the Libertarian
36% 38% 38% Definitely McCrory
9% 7% 9% Probably McCrory
3% 2% 2% Lean McCrory
26% 27% 33% Definitely Dalton
9% 8% 4% Probably Dalton
2% 2% 1% Lean Dalton
* 2% 2% Definitely Howe
* 3% 1% Probably Howe
* 1% — Lean Howe
12% 10% 7% Hard Undecided
* — 1% Other
1% — 1% Refused
*Howe was not included in the May poll.
**Because of rounding, percentages may not add up to 100.
For crosstabs, click here.
About the Poll: This poll of 600 registered voters in North Carolina was conducted September 18-19, 2012 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered 2012 general election voters in North Carolina. Sample methodology is List Based Sampling. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2008, 2010) or be newly registered to vote since November 2, 2010. Fifteen percent of this sample (15%) are “cell phone only” households.
The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in at least one of the past two general elections or is newly registered since November 2, 2010.
The Civitas Poll is the only regular live-caller poll of critical issues facing North Carolina. For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.
More information on the Civitas Institute is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099.