The charts in the link below provide an assortment of information on each of the legislative contests. They include the districts where election outcomes have already been decided and districts that will feature real contests – where there will be more than one candidate on the ballot. In the chart, we have added the names of all the candidates who will appear on the General Election ballot and the percentage of the vote the 2012 winner garnered in order to win that election. In addition, we have included the Civitas Partisan Index (CPI) value of each district to help you better understand the district’s voting tendencies.
The CPI compares votes cast in each N.C. legislative district to votes cast in the state as a whole. The end result is a letter (D or R) followed by a number, indicating the extent to which each district leans one way or the other. For example, a district whose voters allotted 5 more percentage points to the Democratic candidates compared to the state average receives an index score of D+5. While it does not predict elections, the CPI reveals which counties lean Republican or Democratic, plus illuminating larger trends.
The 2014 Primary Election is over and only one legislative race remains undecided. In N.C. House District 23 Democratic primary, where four candidates were vying for the open seat, no candidate received more than 40 percent of the total vote. As a result, the candidate in second place, R.B. “Rusty” Holderness, will challenge the top vote-getter in the May 6 voting, Shelly Willingham, in the second primary on July 15. Like many of the primary contests though, the election will be won when a clear winner is named in the second primary, because only Democrats filed for this seat.
Out of 50 seats in the State Senate, 21 have already been determined either in the Primary or at the time of candidate filing, leaving 29 contests for the General Election. In the State House, 63 contests will appear on the ballot with more than one candidate as a choice. Fifty-seven of the House’s 120 seats have already been decided.
In 2010, Republicans made history by winning majorities in both State Houses. In 2012, they solidified their power by gaining veto-proof majorities in both houses. The stage is now set for 2014: Will Democrats overcome the odds and move back to the power they lost after more than 100 years of dominance or will Republicans hold on and continue to make changes to the way North Carolina operates? Time will tell, but the information below may help us make sense of the election’s final outcomes.