Been wondering how all the population growth around North Carolina is going to affect 2010 redistricting efforts?
Gerry Cohen, the head of Bill Drafting at the NCGA, has an excellent piece on his blog that takes an early look at the potential changes coming.
Basically, the urban power will continue to grow. With Wake and Mecklenburg each adding 2 new House seats and Wake a new Senate seat.
Triangle: Chatham, Durham, Franklin, Orange, Johnston, and Wake.
Increases from 17.67 to 20.37 seats. (+2.7). The 20.37 is up from 20.12
in the 2007 projections. Interestingly from 1973 through 1982, these
six counties had 13 seats. This is a 57% increase in representation for
these six counties in 40 years.
Charlotte area: Cabarrus, Gaston, Iredell, Lincoln, Mecklenburg, and
Union. Increases from 19.79 to 22.35 seats. (+2.42). The 22.35 is up
from 22.21 in the 2007 projections. From 1973 through 1982, these six
counties and Alexander (Iredell and Alexander were in a district
then) had 17 seats compared with 22.83 including Alexander projected
for 2010. This is a 34% increase in representation for these seven
counties in 40 years.
As Gerry points out, these population numbers are current as of now, but things can and will change between now and when the General Assembly starts redrawing the map in 2010, but it does give us an early indication of how things are beginning to take shape.