I thought it might be good to take a look at some crosstabs from last week’s Civitas Institute DecisionMaker poll and get a little more detail on the Presidential race.
Hats off to intern Brian Mullis for his research on this effort.
Likely Democratic voters and their choice for President
· Since March, John Edwards has polled at the highest percentage (24%-26%) of the big three challengers. However his lead is hovering at or just above the roughly 4.5%-5% margin of error (for roughly 500 respondents), with Hillary Clinton’s and Barack Obama’s rate of selection remaining stable at or just below 20%.
· Ethnic cleavage: Edwards has been the choice of Caucasian Democrats with consistent support hovering at 30%. In the past two months, Obama has pulled ahead of Clinton in the support of African-American Democrats, being listed as the choice for that demographic at roughly 30%. Prior to May, both Obama and Clinton were receiving 30% of the African-American vote, however Clinton’s support from that demographic has fallen into the low twenties.
· Undecided: One-third of African-American Democrats have not decided on a presidential candidate, while that same percentage for Caucasians has been between 15% and 20%.
· Geography: John Edwards has consistently received support from more than one-third of the Democrats in western North Carolina.
Likely Republican voters and their choice for President
· The Thompson effect is new: Prior to his inclusion in the June poll, support for Fred Thompson’s candidacy was difficult to gauge, however the desire of Republicans for more candidates has been clear since polling began in February; each month roughly 15% supported the nomination of a candidate for president that was not Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, or Mitt Romney (roughly 400 respondents; estimated margin of error of 5%). During those months, Republicans consistently chose Giuliani, with McCain and Romney finishing second and third, respectively.
· Thompson’s inclusion: In the June poll, Thompson tied with Giuliani for the top choice of likely Republican voters, with both receiving 24%. Thompson’s inclusion lowered McCain, from past percentages in the twenties down to the teens, and reduced Romney’s support to single digits.
· Conservative Republicans: The inclusion of Thompson into the Presidential field has provided a candidate for those Republican whom identify their political philosophy as “very conservative” to support. From February to May, Giuliani’s support was relatively constant among respondents across varying degrees of conservatism, and if it did vary, Giuliani enjoyed the most support from those respondents identifying their philosophy as “very conservative.” However, the inclusion of Thompson resulted in a significant drop-off of support for Giuliani, from roughly 30% to 22%, among these individuals. Thompson enjoys support in the high twenties from more conservative respondents while Giuliani’s support among “moderate” respondents remains stable in the high twenties.
· Geography: Giuliani’s candidacy has significantly more support in the Triangle (41%) and the northeast (31%), while Thompson’s most significant support is found in Charlotte (29%) and the west (34%).
Undecided on the Governor
46% of Democrats, and 65% of Republicans, have not settled on a candidate for governor to represent their parties. A racial cleavage exists among likely Democratic voters, as African-Americans have consistently chosen Beverly Perdue as their candidate with percentage support in the low to mid thirties, while this population supports Richard Moore in percentages at or below 20%.