A lot of people are asking me about turnout so far at early voting where African-Americans are turning out in much higher numbers than many expected. (I think as of Monday morning, African-Americans were 33% of turnout so far).
A couple of things:
1. I think this is just early intensity of African-Americans wanting to go vote early to support Obama.
2. The numbers will level out and here’s why:
If African-Americans turned out at 100% of current registration (approx. 1.3 million) and white voters turned out at 2004 levels (67% of registration), then African-Americans would only make up 30% of overall turnout.
The fact that they are 33% of turnout right now means more African-Americans are going to vote right now.
These early voting statistics are kinda like polls, they are a snapshot in time. What it does show is the very high intensity levels of African-Americans to go vote. But until I see something that makes me think half of Republicans are going to stay home this fall, I’m still comfortable sticking with a 22% turnout projection for African-American share of the vote.
But I’ll keep an eye on this and we’ll revisit it again on Friday when we have more data.