In the race to replace the retiring Rep. Bob England (D-Rutherford) in House District 112, Republican Mike Hager leads Democrat Jim Proctor 46%-36% according to the latest Civitas Poll of that district.
The district consisting of Rutherford and a portion of Cleveland county is an R+7 district on the NCPI. Many people have theorized that England was just about the only Democrat who could hold the seat (much like Senator David Hoyle in SD 43) and that seems to be the case.
Without England, the district is swinging back to its Republican leanings.
The big eye opener in this district is the huge lead that Hager has among definite voters. Among those that said they are 10 out of 10 likely to vote, his lead grows to 56-33. Among 9 out of 10s, its 51-29.
Most outside observers figured HD 112 as one of the most likely to flip to Republican, and given these numbers, it certainly seems so.
Full press release and all the crosstabs here.