As one of the guest panelists, I went out on a limb and predicted that based on the polling data, Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue would win the Democratic nomination for Governor.
The overall results showed Lt. Gov. Perdue with a 34-24 lead over State Treasurer Richard Moore.
However, if you look at some of the crosstabs, Perdue holds bigger leads on demographics of the core Democratic constituency.
Among self-identified "very liberals" she leads by 15%
Among self-identified "somewhat liberals" she leads by 31%
Among those who say they "always vote Democratic" (aka. the hardcore voters) she leads by 15%
Among African-Americans she leads by 25%
Among women she leads by 17%.
So how exactly does Richard Moore win a Democratic primary without the support of African-Americans, women or liberals?
The only demographic where Moore is competitive is in self-identified "somewhat conservative" or "conservative" Democrats (aka "Jesse"crats) — those who also say they vote Republican more than Democratic.
The appeal of Moore to conservative Democrats is one that makes him the strongest General Election candidate but that doesn’t win you a primary. My money is on Bev to win the primary even though she’d be a weaker candidate to run against the eventual Republican nominee.