And there you have it… After having McCain and Obama tied in our polling two weeks ago, we now have Obama jumping out to a 5 point lead 48-43. Read the full release here.
If you remember, I wrote an article that says if Obama can get 37% of the white vote, he can win NC. Guess what percentage of the white vote he’s getting in our latest poll?
Yep. 37%.
McCain is in deep trouble here in NC. And if he’s in trouble here, he’s in worse shape nationally.
Why am I surprised McCain is ahead in the NE, and 15 down in Charlotte? I would also think the Southeastern beach counties would be a bit more kind to McCain. I’m sort of new to NC politics, so I look forward to learning more about demographics and regions.
Just remember when you are dealing with the crosstabs, your sample sizes decreases substantially and increases your margin of error, thus small numbers of respondents being “out of whack” can throw off the the sample.
More than likely, the geographic distributions are not representative for the demographic sample in that area.
We try to achieve that for the entire state, not for geographic areas.
In summary, just take it for what it is (samples of 150 people or so) and not as gospel.