The talking heads have discussed the campaign strategies of both the Democrats and the Republicans for the United States Congress. Republicans intend to “nationalize” the election, making it a referendum on an increasingly unpopular President and a very unpopular Congress. Meanwhile, Democrats hope to “localize” the elections by pitching each race as a battle over local issues – candidate versus candidate. In other words, Democrats intend to make the election more personal.
Civitas’ September poll results, which were released earlier this week and can be found here, indicate that it might be wise for candidates running for the General Assembly to act in accordance with their national parties’ strategy. Of those who support the GOP on the generic ballot for the state legislature, 85% disapprove of President Obama. For those who support Democrats on the state legislature generic ballot, 84% approve of President Obama. The electorate’s opinion of the President, the ultimate national figure, may decide which party controls the General Assembly.
As a note, President Obama’s approval rating in North Carolina is 42%; his disapproval rating is 55%. Another poll reported by the News & Observer shows President Obama with an approval rating of only 39% and a disapproval rating of 57%. To note, the GOP leads the state legislature generic ballot by an 11% margin, 44%-33%.