District Attorney Dewey Hudson (D) holds an eight point lead over Republican nominee Brent Jackson 44%-36% among all voters in the race to replace retiring Sen. Charlie Albertson in Senate District 10 (Sampson, Duplin and Lenoir counties) according to today’s Civitas Flash Poll release.
What is interesting in this race is the difference when just the most likely voters are counted. We asked voters to rate on a scale of 1-10 (with 10 being the most likely), how likely they were to vote this year. 66% of the voters surveyed responded as a 10 and of those voters Hudson’s lead drops to just one point 43%-42%.
Also encouraging for Republicans is of those most likely to vote, they favor a Republican on the generic ballot question by a 47%-41% margin.
Both candidates are about even in net favorability ratings, which is a bit surprising considering how long Hudson has been District Attorney in the area. Hudson’s favorability is a +11 (27% favorable, 16% unfavorable). Jackson is 20% favorable, 10% unfavorable.
Civitas’ NCPI has this district rated as a D+3, so it’s a leaning Democratic district, but one that could get swept up and turn Republican if the wave is strong enough this year.
Full results and crosstabs here.