Wow. That’s some convention bounce.
SurveyUSA is out with their latest NC poll and they have McCain now leading by 20 points 58%-38%.
In 3 previous SurveyUSA NC tracking polls, McCain
had led by 8, 5, and 4 points. Today: 20. McCain has gained ground in
every demographic group. Among men, McCain led by 9 last month, 27
today. Among women, Obama
led by 2 last month, trails by 12 today. McCain holds 9 of 10
Republican voters; Obama holds 3 of 4 Democratic voters; independents,
who were split last month, break today crisply for McCain, where, in
the blink of an eye, he is up by 25.
We’ll have our results back of our special post-convention poll tomorrow, so we’ll see if our numbers line up with this.
That’s great timing, Chris. My guess would be that there’s a real convention bounce for the GOP ticket in NC, but I wonder if the SUSA sample isn’t a bit off.
John,
The biggest flaw I’ve found in the crosstabs is SUSA has Republicans as 41% of the sample and Democrats only 40%. Should be mid-high 30s GOP, Dems in the mid 40s.
I don’t know if that is by observation or self-identified, but it just doesn’t seem right to me.