As the 2008 election progresses the Civitas Institute will periodically look at the election process and landscape and give insight and analysis into where the elections may be heading. Using analysis and polling, the Civitas Institute will report what is happening on the campaign trail and what North Carolinians say are the important issues this year. In this first report we use the Civitas Partisan Index (CPI) to look at how legislative candidate filing has shaped the fall election.
The campaigns this year are decided in two different stages. The first stage is to convince candidates to run. Incumbents must decide to seek reelection, challengers must be recruited to face those incumbents, and both parties jockey for the best possible candidate to fill vulnerable open seats. The second stage is the fall general election itself. With the closing of the North Carolina candidate filing period we can assess how the first stage went and look ahead to see how the fall is shaping up.
By the Numbers – |
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|
|
Democrats |
Republicans |
220 |
Candidates filed |
112 |
108 |
111 |
Incumbents |
67 |
44 |
109 |
Challengers |
45 |
64 |
10 |
Open seats^ |
2 |
8 |
28 |
Primaries* |
13 |
15 |
57 |
Decided Elections** |
33 |
24 |
^ Includes House District 18 |
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* The 25th district has both a Democratic and Republican primary |
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** These races have only candidates from one party filed |
As of the close of filing, 57 races (48 percent), of the North Carolina House had been decided as only candidates from one party had filed for those seats. With 33 seats already won by default due to lack of opposition from Republicans, Democrats need to win only 28 more seats, or about 44 percent of the remaining contests in order to retain control of the House. Republicans have 24 seats uncontested and need to win 37 seats or 59 percent of the contested races to take control of the chamber.
Taking a closer look at the settled partisan races, according to the CPI of the 33 uncontested Democratic seats, five seats are in what many would consider to be competitive districts with one in an R+6 district and four in a neutral to D+5 district. Of the 24 uncontested Republican seats only one is in a comparable competitive district. Simply put, Democrats got a free ride on five seats that are in the two most competitive categories while Republicans only had one free ride in comparable categories. Democrats were more successful in discouraging challengers in vulnerable seats.
CPI Analysis – |
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|
Held by |
Held by |
Contested |
Decided |
R+10.1 to R+22 (28) |
1 |
27 |
12 (11R, 1D) |
16 (16R) |
R+5.1 to R+10.0 (20) |
2 |
18 |
8 (7R, 1D) |
12 (11R, 1D) |
Neutral to R+5.0 (15) |
9 |
6 |
14 (5R, 9D) |
1 (1R) |
Neutral to D+5.0 (12) |
11 |
1 |
8 (1R, 7D) |
4 (4D) |
D+5.1 to D+10.0 (14) |
14 |
|
8 (8D) |
6 (6D) |
D+10.0 to D+26 (31) |
31 |
|
9 (9D) |
22 (22D) |
In the contested races the advantage is reversed – Republicans are defending six seats that are in the most competitive category, Neutral to R+5 and one in a D+3 district. Democrats have to defend 11 seats that are Neutral to R+11 and seven in the Neutral to D+5 categories. Democrats have to play defense on 18 seats versus seven for the Republicans. While the CPI is useful for assessing the competitiveness of a given district, it is not predictive of election outcomes. Other influences such as local factors, political climate and money raised can have an impact. Civitas analysis of the 2006 elections cycle showed that Republicans lost when they were outspent by greater than 3:1 in competitive districts.
By the Numbers – |
|||
|
|
Democrats |
Republicans |
106 |
Candidates filed |
59 |
47 |
44 |
Incumbents |
27 |
17 |
62 |
Challengers |
32 |
30 |
6 |
Open seats |
4 |
2 |
19 |
Primaries* |
14 |
5 |
20 |
Decided Elections** |
9 |
11 |
* The 12th & 36th districts have both a Democratic and Republican primary |
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** These races have only candidates from one party filed |
In the North Carolina Senate, party control of 20 seats (40%) of the chamber has been decided as only candidates of one party have filed. To gain a majority of seats in the Senate, Republicans must win 50 percent of the contested races. To retain control, Democrats must win 57 percent of the competitive seats.
Looking at the contests that have been decided, the CPI of the nine uncontested Democratic seats, three are in Neutral to D+5 districts. Of the 11 uncontested Republican seats two are in comparable contested categories, but both are at the high end of the R+5 scale. As in the House, Democrats were more successful in discouraging challengers in vulnerable seats.
CPI Analysis – |
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|
Held by |
Held by |
Contested |
Decided |
R+10.1 to R+16 (12) |
1 |
11 |
4 (3R, 1D) |
8 (8R) |
R+5.1 to R+10.0 (10) |
3 |
7 |
7 (4R, 3D) |
3 (3R) |
Neutral to R+5.0 (4) |
3 |
1 |
4 (1R, 3D) |
|
Neutral to D+5.0 (6) |
6 |
|
4 (4D) |
2 (2D) |
D+5.1 to D+10.0 (5) |
5 |
|
4 (4D) |
1 (1D) |
D+10.1 to D+23 (13) |
13 |
|
7 (7D) |
6 (6D) |
In the contested races the advantage is reversed – Republicans are only defending two seats in the most competitive category, Neutral to R+5. Democrats must defend seven seats that are Neutral to R+11 and four in the Neutral to D+5 categories. Democrats have to play defense on 11 seats in competitive categories versus only one for the Republicans. As in the house analysis, the CPI is useful for assessing the competitiveness of a given district; it is not predictive of election outcomes. Other influences such as local factors, political climate and money raised can have an impact. Civitas analysis of the 2006 elections cycle showed that when republicans were outspent by greater than 3-1 they would lose even in favorable districts.
Naturally, with the 31-19 majority the Democrats have built over the past few cycles, they will have more swing or competitive seats in play and the senate campaign appears to be shaping up as a wide open brawl as both sides key in on the competitive races. In the Senate, at least 13 out of the 30 seats that are being contested should have lively campaigns. The Republicans should start with seven contested races favoring them while the Democrats start with 11 of 30 contested races favoring them. Assuming this holds true, the Republicans have to win seven of the 12 elections identified as competitive to win control and the Democrats have to win six to maintain control.
Will Republicans be able take seats that lean their way or will Democrats in the Senate continue to be successful in playing offense on the opponent’s end of the field?