October 2011 Poll Results

This poll of 600 likely 2012 general election voters in North Carolina was conducted October 17-18 2011 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of probable 2012 general election voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in 2006 or 2008 or be newly registered to vote since November 5, 2008. (November 5 is the day after the election)

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in the 2006 or 2008 general elections or is newly registered since November 5, 2008.

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  1. On a scale of one to ten, how likely do you think you are to vote in the May 2012 Primary election? One means you are not at all likely to vote, five means there is a 50-50 chance you will vote, and ten means it is certain that you will vote in the election in May. Remember you can use any number between one and ten.
    • 78%
      10
    • 3.7%
      9
    • 4.8%
      8
    • 1.3%
      7
    • 1.5%
      6
    • 6.5%
      5
    • 0.3%
      3
    • 0.3%
      2
    • 2.8%
      1
    • 0.7%
      Don't Know/Refused
  2. And on a scale of one to ten, how likely do you think you are to vote in the November 2012 General election? One means you are not at all likely to vote, five means there is a 50-50 chance you will vote, and ten means it is certain that you will vote in the election in November. Remember you can use any number between one and ten.
    • 91.5%
      10
    • 2.8%
      9
    • 2.3%
      8
    • 0.3%
      7
    • 0.3%
      6
    • 1.3%
      5
    • 0.2%
      2
    • 0.8%
      1
    • 0.3%
      Don't Know/Refused
  3. Do you feel things in North Carolina are generally headed in the right direction or have gotten off on the wrong track?
    • 22.5%
      Right Direction
    • 63.7%
      Wrong Track
    • 13.8%
      Don't Know/Refused
  4. Do you feel things in the United States are generally headed in the right direction or have gotten off on the wrong track?
    • 14.2%
      Right Direction
    • 77.5%
      Wrong Track
    • 8.3%
      Don't Know/Refused
  5. And if the election for State Legislature were held today, would you be voting for the:
    • 36.3%
      Republican candidate
    • 35.8%
      Democratic candidate
    • 6.3%
      Neither
    • 21.5%
      Don't Know/Refused
  6. All things being equal, would you rather vote for...
    • 41.3%
      An incumbent with experience in public office
    • 31.2%
      An outsider with no experience in public office
    • 4.2%
      Neither
    • 23.3%
      Don't Know/Refused
  7. If you were to label yourself, would you say you are a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative in your political beliefs?
    • 7.8%
      Very Liberal
    • 9.5%
      Somewhat Liberal
    • 34%
      Moderate
    • 21.3%
      Somewhat Conservative
    • 22.3%
      Very Conservative
    • 5%
      Don't Know/Refused
  8. Now I am going to read you a list of people and organizations active in politics. After I read each name, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person or organization. If you have never heard of them, just tell me and we’ll go on to the next one... the first one is: Tea party:
    • 16.2%
      Very Favorable
    • 22.8%
      Somewhat Favorable
    • 11.2%
      Somewhat Unfavorable
    • 29.8%
      Very Unfavorable
    • 15.3%
      Heard of, no opinion
    • 4.7%
      Never heard of
  9. Bev Perdue
    • 15.8%
      Very Favorable
    • 26.2%
      Somewhat Favorable
    • 16.3%
      Somewhat Unfavorable
    • 30.3%
      Very Unfavorable
    • 7.7%
      Heard of, no opinion
    • 3.7%
      Never heard of
  10. Barack Obama
    • 29%
      Very Favorable
    • 17%
      Somewhat Favorable
    • 10.8%
      Somewhat Unfavorable
    • 37.8%
      Very Unfavorable
    • 4.2%
      Heard of, no opinion
    • 1.2%
      Never heard of
  11. Roy Cooper
    • 11.5%
      Very Favorable
    • 19.3%
      Somewhat Favorable
    • 4.5%
      Somewhat Unfavorable
    • 1.8%
      Very Unfavorable
    • 17.8%
      Heard of, no opinion
    • 45%
      Never heard of
  12. Steve Troxler
    • 7%
      Very Favorable
    • 14.2%
      Somewhat Favorable
    • 3.5%
      Somewhat Unfavorable
    • 2.2%
      Very Unfavorable
    • 21.8%
      Heard of, no opinion
    • 51.3%
      Never heard of
  13. Wayne Goodwin
    • 2.2%
      Very Favorable
    • 6.7%
      Somewhat Favorable
    • 1.2%
      Somewhat Unfavorable
    • 1.3%
      Very Unfavorable
    • 15%
      Heard of, no opinion
    • 73.7%
      Never heard of
  14. Elaine Marshall
    • 10.7%
      Very Favorable
    • 18.3%
      Somewhat Favorable
    • 5.7%
      Somewhat Unfavorable
    • 3.7%
      Very Unfavorable
    • 21.3%
      Heard of, no opinion
    • 40.3%
      Never heard of
  15. Beth Wood
    • 1.8%
      Very Favorable
    • 5.3%
      Somewhat Favorable
    • 2%
      Somewhat Unfavorable
    • 1.7%
      Very Unfavorable
    • 14.3%
      Heard of, no opinion
    • 74.8%
      Never heard of
  16. Janet Cowell
    • 3%
      Very Favorable
    • 5.2%
      Somewhat Favorable
    • 0.8%
      Somewhat Unfavorable
    • 2%
      Very Unfavorable
    • 14.8%
      Heard of, no opinion
    • 74.2%
      Never heard of
  17. June Atkinson
    • 6%
      Very Favorable
    • 12.8%
      Somewhat Favorable
    • 2.3%
      Somewhat Unfavorable
    • 1%
      Very Unfavorable
    • 16.8%
      Heard of, no opinion
    • 61%
      Never heard of
  18. Cherie Berie
    • 7.5%
      Very Favorable
    • 14.2%
      Somewhat Favorable
    • 3%
      Somewhat Unfavorable
    • 2.8%
      Very Unfavorable
    • 20.3%
      Heard of, no opinion
    • 52.2%
      Never heard of
  19. Walter Dalton
    • 2.7%
      Very Favorable
    • 10.2%
      Somewhat Favorable
    • 5%
      Somewhat Unfavorable
    • 4.3%
      Very Unfavorable
    • 23.5%
      Heard of, no opinion
    • 54.3%
      Never heard of
  20. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing as President of the United States?
    • 22.7%
      Strongly Approve
    • 22.3%
      Somewhat Approve
    • 10.8%
      Somewhat Disapprove
    • 40.3%
      Strongly Disapprove
    • 3.8%
      Don't Know/Refused
  21. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bev Perdue is doing as Governor?
    • 15.3%
      Strongly Approve
    • 29.8%
      Somewhat Approve
    • 15.7%
      Somewhat Disapprove
    • 31.3%
      Strongly Disapprove
    • 7.8%
      Don't Know/Refused
  22. Open-ended: And, in your own words, why would you say you approve of Bev Perdue? Asked of those approving of Perdue's performance
  23. Open-ended: And, in your own words, why would you say you disapprove of Bev Perdue? Asked of those disapproving of Perdue's performance
  24. Governor Perdue recently supported a proposal to offer a company nearly100 million dollars in incentives, with $45 million being given immediately, to build a new manufacturing facility in North Carolina. The company promised to create over 1,000 jobs by 2019. Under the proposal, funding cuts would take place in other areas of the state budget and taxpayer money would have been used to buy land currently owned by a Democratic State Senator and several donors to the governor's campaign. The land owners would have made a profit of about one million dollars on the land. Republicans in the North Carolina legislature opposed the governor's proposal. Which of the following statements comes closest to your opinion on this latest incentives proposal?
    • 21.5%
      This deal would have been good for North Carolina
    • 40.5%
      This was a bad deal for North Carolina
    • 19.7%
      I oppose all economic incentives of this type
    • 18.3%
      Don't Know/Refused
  25. If the election for President of the United States were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: Herman Cain, the Republican, and Barack Obama, the Democrat?
    • 34.8%
      Definitely Cain
    • 7.5%
      Probably Cain
    • 4.2%
      Lean Cain
    • 9.8%
      Undecided
    • 1%
      Lean Obama
    • 3.3%
      Probably Obama
    • 36.3%
      Definitely Obama
    • 3%
      Don't Know/Refused
  26. North Carolina state law allows for a state debt instrument known as Certificates of Participation, or COPs. This type of state debt does not require voter approval. North Carolina state government has relied exclusively on non-voter approved state debt exclusively since 2000. Do you support or oppose legislation that would require voter approval over all state debt?”
    • 39%
      Strongly Support
    • 18%
      Somewhat Support
    • 16.2%
      Somewhat Oppose
    • 10.3%
      Strongly Oppose
    • 16.5%
      Don't Know/Refused
  27. When a North Carolina resident dies, the state government levies a tax of up to 16% on assets above $5 million which includes, businesses homes, farm animals, bank accounts and everything else the deceased owned. This tax is levied in addition to the Federal estate tax of 35%. Please tell me if you support or oppose this practice?
    • 12.8%
      Strongly Support
    • 12.3%
      Somewhat Support
    • 14.8%
      Somewhat Oppose
    • 51%
      Strongly Oppose
    • 9%
      Don't Know/Refused
  28. State legislators have offered legislation to create a heath benefit exchange as required by the federal health care legislation also known as "Obamacare." Do you think legislators should act now or wait until the constitutionality of the federal health law has been determined before creating and spending money on a state level health benefits exchange?
    • 31.8%
      Act now
    • 53.2%
      Wait
    • 15%
      Don't Know/Refused
  29. North Carolina currently spends about $8,500 per student per year in its public school system. Recent polling shows that about 2/3 of North Carolinians said they don’t believe citizens are getting a good return on that investment. In your opinion what is the best way to address this problem?
    • 32.8%
      Provide parents and students with additional educational options such as charter schools and lowering barriers to private education.
    • 31.8%
      Supply more money to public K-12 education
    • 13.3%
      Use competition and market forces as a way to guide education reform.
    • 5%
      Other
    • 0.5%
      All of the above
    • 16.5%
      Don't Know/Refused
  30. The North Carolina legislature is considering tax reform to try and make the state more attractive to new businesses to locate or start up in the state and allow existing businesses to grow. Which tax do you think is the biggest obstacle to business growth and job creation in North Carolina?
    • 10.5%
      Income tax
    • 10%
      Sales tax
    • 13.8%
      Property tax
    • 37.2%
      Corporate tax
    • 1.7%
      Other
    • 5.5%
      All of the above
    • 21.3%
      Don't Know/Refused
  31. The current North Carolina Pre-K eligibility standards for children “at-risk” of academic failure includes children, regardless of family income, with asthma and childhood obesity. Do you feel that asthma and childhood obesity should be factors that allow children to receive free Pre-kindergarten?
    • 29.2%
      Yes, Obesity and Asthma should be eligibility factors for free pre kindergarten service.
    • 56.5%
      No, Obesity and Asthma should not be eligibility factors for free pre kindergarten services
    • 14.3%
      Don't Know/Refused
  32. Superior Court Judge Howard Manning ruled this past July that the state of North Carolina had a Constitutional obligation to provide free Pre-Kindergarten services to all children deemed “at-risk” of academic failure. Children considered “at-risk” include those from families earning under 75 percent of the state’s median income, which for a family of three is around $36,000, as well as health factors like asthma and childhood obesity, among other criteria. Fiscal staff in the General Assembly estimates that this could cost the state as much as $360 million. North Carolina currently spends around $130 million on the program. Do you feel:
    • 42.2%
      The General Assembly should appeal to overturn Manning’s ruling.
    • 36.7%
      The General Assembly should spend the money to fund the program and provide universal Pre-K to at-risk children.
    • 5.2%
      Neither/other
    • 16%
      Don't Know/Refused
  33. The speaker of the North Carolina House has proposed drug testing for recipients of public assistance. Do you agree or disagree with drug testing all those who receive public assistance in the state?
    • 55.3%
      Strongly Agree
    • 15.5%
      Somewhat Agree
    • 8%
      Somewhat Disagree
    • 15.3%
      Strongly Disagree
    • 5.8%
      Don't Know/Refused
  34. Regardless of your party affiliation do you:
    • 12.8%
      Always Vote Democrat
    • 28.2%
      Vote Democrat more often than Republican
    • 28.3%
      Vote Republican more often than Democrat
    • 10.2%
      Always Vote Republican
    • 11.5%
      Both Equally - Split Ticket
    • 9%
      Don't Know/Refused
  35. In what year were you born?
    • 2.8%
      18-25
    • 12.3%
      26-40
    • 31.3%
      41-55
    • 22.5%
      56-65
    • 22.8%
      66+
    • 8.2%
      Don't Know/Refused
  36. In terms of your current employment status, would you say you…
    • 8.3%
      Are self-employed
    • 29.5%
      Work for a private company
    • 13.7%
      Work for Government
    • 6.7%
      Are a Spouse (homemaker)
    • 28.7%
      Are Retired
    • 7.3%
      Are Unemployed
    • 5.8%
      Don't Know/Refused
  37. Now I am going to read you a range of annual household incomes. When I get to the one that best describes you annual household income, just let me know and I will move on to the next question...
    • 31%
      Fifty thousand dollars or less
    • 15%
      Between 50 and 75 thousand dollars
    • 14.2%
      Between 75 and 100 thousand dollars
    • 8.5%
      Between 100 and 150 thousand dollars
    • 2.8%
      Between 150 and 200 thousand dollars
    • 2.3%
      Over 200 thousand dollars
    • 26.2%
      Don't Know/Refused
  38. Which category best describes your race or ethnicity?
    • 76.5%
      White or Caucasian
    • 17.8%
      African-American or Black
    • 0.8%
      Hispanic or Latino
    • 1.5%
      Native American
    • 1.3%
      Asian or Pacific Islander
    • 0.5%
      Other
    • 1.5%
      Don't Know/Refused
  39. What is the highest level of schooling you completed?
    • 2.3%
      Less than HS Graduate
    • 24%
      High School Graduate
    • 24.2%
      2 yr. College/Technical School
    • 29.3%
      4 yr. College Graduate
    • 15%
      Post-Graduate
    • 5.2%
      Don't Know/Refused
  40. Gender
    • 47.7%
      Men
    • 52.3%
      Women
  41. Geographic area
    • 21.8%
      Charlotte
    • 13.4%
      Western
    • 19.1%
      Piedmont Triad
    • 20.9%
      Triangle
    • 10.4%
      Northeast
    • 14.4%
      Southeast
  42. Party registration
    • 31.8%
      Republican
    • 46.3%
      Democrat
    • 21.8%
      Independent/Other

This article was posted in Poll Results by Civitas Staff on November 16, 2011 at 5:00 AM.

© 2011 The Civitas Institute. Visit us on the web at www.nccivitas.org.
This article can be found at http://www.nccivitas.org/2011/october-2011-poll-results/

Comments on this article

  • 1

    Wayne Davis
    Wayne Davis Nov 16, 2011 at 8:18

    Still not true representation of the makeup and demographics of the citizens of North Carolina. You folks just don’t get it!. Do yourself a favor, and don’t bother doing these bogus polls, unless you are willing to do the work and use a true representation of the population of the state, other than the male/female percentage.

  • 2

    ROSEY KIDD
    ROSEY KIDD Nov 16, 2011 at 8:53

    All I have to say is vote Gov Perdue out ,and to all those who want free pre-K is to spend time with your children and read to them .teach them honor and respect and responsibility from an early age ,
    Parents have money to get their nails and hair done ,instead buy books for your children .
    Education starts at home
    And it is time for us to do something about all this illegals in N.C .who is also dragging the system down ,foodstamp.medicaid ,welfare checks ,And those same people will not learn to speak English or teach their children.then drive .and why are providing spanish materials for them .

  • 3

    Dave Burton
    Dave Burton Nov 16, 2011 at 9:11

    Wayne, Civitas doesn’t poll “the citizens of North Carolina.” They poll the VOTERS of North Carolina. That’s the demographics they’re matching, and they’ve got it pretty close to spot-on.

  • 4

    Jim Womack
    Jim Womack Nov 16, 2011 at 9:38

    The CIVITAS polling almost always reflects the mood and predisposition of likely NC voters more accurately than Gallup, Harris, or any of the other pollsters. Some of the CIVITAS 2010 pre-election polling was eerily accurate.

    PBO is in trouble in NC. He and the DNC know that well- evidence is the national democrat convention being held in Charlotte and all of PBO’s bus trips and town halls here. Moreover, Gov. Perdue is toast in 2012. In future CIVITAS polls, just watch how well McCrory polls in a head to head against her. He is on a path to win in a landslide referendum against Perdue. Now, if he will only make it official he is running!

    If you want a legitimate forecast of NC election results in 2012, this is the place to come.

  • 5

    Tarheel Texan
    Tarheel Texan Nov 16, 2011 at 19:01

    Looking at Q18, it shows that 46% of North Carolinians approve of the destruction /dismantling the US.

  • 6

    Carolina Girl
    Carolina Girl Nov 16, 2011 at 21:05

    I can’t see why anyone would think Obama or Perdue have done anything to help this counry or this state unless they are what I call the “For Free Crowd”. That means they make a living by living off our tax dollars!!!

  • 7

    Brian Selby
    Brian Selby Nov 17, 2011 at 6:35

    I find it utterly appalling that anyone could think that Obama and Perdue can be strongly favorable and strongly approved of. I’ll admit I strongly agree that Obama is a good reader of the tele prompter but I also would have to say I strongly disapprove of his handling of the economy and jobs!
    As for Perdue, I strongly beleive she is one of the biggest hypocrits of todays NC politics. How do you veto ID cards yet require 2 forms of ID for fund raisers and DNC conventions?
    Really???

  • 8

    Pamela
    Pamela Nov 17, 2011 at 9:42

    I am appallled that Gov. Perdue vetoed the voter ID bill passed by the state legislature! We have to show ID’s for everything else we do, but not to confirm we are eligible to vote and we are who we say we are through picture ID? This makes no sense! This veto only helps people who have something to hide or who want to vote illegally!

  • 9

    bob hodgman
    bob hodgman Dec 26, 2011 at 12:38

    Unfortunately,what we have here is something called a Push Poll. This is typical of Right Wing back room political organizations such as Civitas, an organization almost entirely funded by wealthy,Art Pope. For truth ,Google “Art Pope Revealed”
    Citizens are waking up about this man and will not let him buy another legislature.

  • 10

    donna H
    donna H Dec 26, 2011 at 12:54

    Well gee. When Civitas wants the result it wants,it just runs a bogus poll.

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