As reported by NCInsider.com, state budget writers will likely have to wait another month or more to get an updated revenue projection for the fiscal year that started July 1.
According to an email obtained by reporter Colin Campbell, the legislative fiscal research division’s top economists say the revenue picture is still very unclear.
In our May report, we indicated that we planned to issue a revised, line-item forecast in August because we thought we would be in a much better position to do so at that time. Unfortunately, we are still facing significant economic uncertainty along with new uncertainty about federal policy and the Fiscal Research Division does not expect to have the information necessary to issue a revised, line-item forecast until late September.
The continued shutdowns in response to Coronavirus of course are creating great uncertainty, as well as President Trump’s recent executive order and the possible next federal relief package currently being debated.
For some context, we can look at the state controller’s office monthly General Fund report for June, the most recent one available. For the fiscal year ending June 30, revenues were about $1.1 billion short of projections, and down roughly $900 million from the prior year.
For the month of June specifically, revenue to the state was down about $200 million, or roughly 10%, compared to 2019.
Unfortunately, Gov. Roy Cooper did nothing to curb spending in anticipation of the drop off in revenue, making matters worse.