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Budd with Narrow Lead in NC-13

Trump Influence Tough to Gauge
October 15, 2018


RALEIGH, N.C. – Civitas has just released its poll results from North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District. It found a narrowing margin between one-term Republican incumbent Ted Budd and his top challenger, Democrat Kathy Manning (44-41). A July Civitas Poll had Budd leading Manning by 5 points.

In the election for U.S. House of Representatives how do you plan to vote? Republican Ted Budd? Democrat Kathy Manning? Libertarian Tom Bailey? Or Green Party candidate Robert Corriher?

Ted Budd             44%
Kathy Manning   41%
Tom Bailey             1%
Robert Corriher     1%
Undecided            13%

“Democrats pegged this district early on as vulnerable because Congressman Budd is a freshman and freshmen members have lower name recognition in their districts,” said Civitas Institute President Donald Bryson. “However, this district is in the conservative heartland of North Carolina, and despite a well-funded campaign on the part of Kathy Manning, Congressman Budd remains in the lead.”

In the 2016 election, NC-13 swung toward Trump by a 9-point margin (53-44). Much of Congressman Budd’s voting record while in Congress reflects his willingness to keep step with the President’s initiatives, which has garnered him a score of 90.2 percent on how often he votes in line with Trump’s position, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Registered, likely voters were also asked whether they approved of the President’s job performance:

Approve          48%
Disapprove     46%
Not Sure            6%

Bryson continued, “President Trump’s influence on this race is difficult to read.  The President is not having a dampening effect on Congressman Budd’s campaign, but it’s unclear if he provides a significant boost.” Likely voters in this district were also optimistic about the economy, which remains a top election issue for many going into November.

Thinking about the economy overall, do you think the economy is getting stronger? Getting weaker? Or staying about the same?

Getting Stronger                     52%
Getting Weaker                       18%
Staying About the Same        26%
Not Sure                                     3%

Complete toplines and crosstabs can be found here.

SurveyUSA surveyed 533 likely voters between 10/09-10/12. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. The margin of error is 5.2%.

For questions, or to arrange an interview, please contact Brooke Medina, communications director, at

Civitas has conducted live-caller voting in North Carolina since May 2005, and we are the only public policy organization offering statewide independent, nonpartisan data on a regular basis. Our polls have provided vital insights on what North Carolina voters think of the leaders and issues facing the state and nation.

Founded in 2005, the Civitas Institute is a Raleigh, NC-based, 501(c)(3) nonprofit policy organization committed to advancing conservative ideas and shrinking the size of government. Civitas fights to eliminate government barriers to freedom so that North Carolinians can live a better life.

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