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Support for Voter ID Strong; Income Tax Cap Dips

"Kavanaugh Effect" Energizing more Republicans than Democrats
October 25, 2018


RALEIGH, N.C. – Today, the Civitas Institute released the results of its final statewide poll before the November 6th election.

Civitas surveyed likely voters on a wide range of issues, such as their thoughts on Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to their opinion on the General Assembly’s job performance. Respondents were also asked who they plan to vote for in this year’s North Carolina Supreme Court contest, the lone statewide race this election.

Voters also have an opportunity to vote for or against six proposed constitutional amendments. When those surveyed were asked if they favor “a state constitutional amendment to reduce the income tax rate in North Carolina to a maximum allowable rate of seven percent,” 50 percent favor, 37 percent oppose, and 13 percent were unsure or refused. Support for voter photo identification and right to hunt and fish amendments were both above 60 percent.

“All three amendments in this poll appear to have strong support, with the hunting rights and voter identification amendments in the strongest positions,” said Civitas Institute President Donald Bryson. “Looking at age demographics, all three of the amendments have the largest amount of support among 35 to 54-year-olds.”

Likely voters were also asked their opinion on Associate Justice Kavanaugh’s confirmation. Forty-six percent favored the Senate’s decision to confirm him, while 42 percent opposed. Respondents were then asked if the confirmation hearings for Judge Kavanaugh made them more or less likely to vote. Those that strongly favored his confirmation were 20 percent more likely to say they were energized to vote than those strongly opposed.

Bryson continued, “There has been conjecture about the possibility of a so-called ‘Kavanaugh Effect’ in this year’s elections. In this poll, registered Republicans were more likely to say the confirmation hearings increased their likelihood to vote than registered Democrats by 14 percent.”

The sample size for the survey was 500 likely voters in North Carolina and the margin of error is +/- 4.4%. Responses were gathered via landline and mobile telephone interviews conducted by live callers at a professional call center. The survey was conducted October 18-21, 2018 by Harper Polling.

Poll Highlights

For questions, or to arrange an interview, please contact Brooke Medina, communications director, at

Civitas has conducted live-caller voting in North Carolina since May 2005, and we are the only public policy organization offering statewide independent, nonpartisan data on a regular basis. Our polls have provided vital insights on what North Carolina voters think of the leaders and issues facing the state and nation.

Founded in 2005, the Civitas Institute is a Raleigh, NC-based, 501(c)(3) nonprofit policy organization committed to advancing conservative ideas and shrinking the size of government. Civitas fights to eliminate government barriers to freedom so that North Carolinians can live a better life.

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