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April 29, 2014
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Francis De Luca (919) 834-2099  Francis.deluca@nccivitas.org

RALEIGH – The latest Civitas Institute Poll shows likely North Carolina voters would prefer to see House Speaker Thom Tillis, a Republican, as the fall opponent of incumbent Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan.

In the regular Civitas live-caller poll, Tillis was the choice of 27 percent of respondents. Mark Harris, a pastor from Charlotte, was picked by 16 percent; 13 percent preferred Cary physician Greg Brannon. Thirty percent answered “don’t know” and 13 percent selected “none/other/no one.”

The poll of 600 likely North Carolina voters (25% of whom were contacted via cell phone) was conducted April 19, 21 and 22, and has an error margin of plus/minus 4 percent.

For details, click on: Crosstabs April 2014 live poll – politics

Text of questions*:

1) First, If the election for United States Congress were being held today, if all else were equal, for whom would you vote, the…..
1/14           3/14           4/14
44%            42%            41%            The Republican Candidate
40%            43%            42%            The Democrat Candidate
15%            15%            17%            Not sure/ Undecided
–                 —                 1%              Refused
2) And thinking about the United States for a moment… Do you feel things in the United States are generally headed in the right direction or have things gotten off on the wrong track?
10/12         10/13         1/14           3/14           4/14
40%            19%            24%            28%            29%            Right Direction
55%            75%            66%            64%            61%            Wrong Track
5%              6%              10%            8%              10%            Don’t Know/Unsure
–                 —                 1%              —                 —                 Refused
3) And now thinking specifically about North Carolina… If the election for North Carolina State Legislature were held today, would you be voting for the:
41%            Republican candidate
44%            Democratic candidate
3%              Neither
12%            Don’t Know
4) And still thinking specifically about North Carolina… Do you feel things in North Carolina are generally headed in the right direction or have things gotten off on the wrong track?
1/14                3/14                4/14
29%                32%                29%    Right Dir.
60%                57%                60%    Wrong Track
11%                11%                10%    DK
Now, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of…
                TOTAL       TOTAL                           VERY          SMWT       SMWT       VERY                              HRD OF/                       NEVER
                    FAV            UNFAV                         FAV            FAV            UNFAV     UNFAV                         NO OPIN                         HRD OF
5) Barack Obama
4/14           48%            48%                                 29%            20%            10%            38%                                3%                                  –
3/14           46%            52%                                29%            17%            9%              43%                                2%                                  –
1/14           46%            50%                                27%            19%            9%              42%                                3%                                  –
6) Pat McCrory
4/14           44%            42%                                17%            27%            14%            28%                                11%                                3%
3/14           44%            46%                                20%            24%            14%            32%                                9%                                  1%
1/14           43%            44%                                18%            25%            15%            28%                                11%                                2%
Now, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of …
                     Total          Total                              Strong       Smwt        Smwt        Strong                           Don’t
                       App.          Disapp.                         App.         App.           Disapp.       Disapp.                            Know
7) … the job Barack Obama is doing as President of the United States?
4/14           47%            50%                                24%            23%            10%            40%                                3%
3/14           46%            53%                                24%            22%            9%              44%                                1%
1/14           45%            52%                                25%            19%            10%            42%                                3%
8)… the job that Pat McCrory is doing as Governor of North Carolina?
4/14           50%            44%                                16%            34%            15%            30%                                6%
3/14           48%            46%                                16%            32%            14%            32%                                7%
1/14           48%            42%                                17%            31%            16%            26%                                9%
9) … the job Kay Hagan is doing as US Senator?
4/14           44%            46%                                15%            28%            15%            31%                                11%
3/14           44%            44%                                15%            29%            14%            30%                                13%
1/14           38%            45%                                15%            23%            17%            28%                                16%
10) And if the election for US Senate and Congress were being held today, would you rather…
3/14           4/14
49%            48%            Elect a Republican who will be a check and balance to President Obama’s policies and programs.
43%            42%            Elect a Democrat who will support President Obama’s programs and policies.
7%              9%              Don’t Know/Neither/Other
1%              —                 Refused
11) Has Kay Hagan performed her job as US Senator well enough to deserve re-election, or is it time to give someone new a chance to do a better job?
10/13         1/14           3/14           4/14
30%            30%            31%            38%            Total Re-elect
50%            56%            54%            51%            Total New Person
18%            17%            23%            26%            Definitely Re-elect
12%            13%            9%              12%            Probably Re-elect
15%            14%            11%            9%              Probably New Person
35%            41%            43%            42%            Definitely New Person
19%            14%            15%            11%            Undecided/Don’t Know/More Info Needed
12) If the election for US Senate were being held today, if all else were equal, for whom would you vote, the…..
38%            The Republican Candidate
43%            The Democrat Candidate
8%              The Libertarian Candidate
11%            Not sure/ Undecided
1%              Refused
13) This year when it comes to voting, will you be more motivated to come out and vote based on…
3/14           4/14
33%         44%              North Carolina specific issues like state spending, education and specific laws passed
53%         48%              National and Federal issues like ObamaCare, federal spending and borrowing, and foreign policy
3%             2%              Won’t be motivated
11%           6%              Don’t Know/ Refused
14) Which of the following types of issues are most likely to affect your vote for US Senate and Congress this year…
39%            Economic issues like jobs and unemployment
23%            Fiscal issues like taxes, spending, deficits, and debt
14%            Social issues like abortion and gay marriage
8%              National security issues like terrorism, Russia, and Syria
10%            Your feelings towards President Obama
6%              Don’t Know/ Refused
Now, thinking about this year’s general election…
15) When it comes to the election for US Senate this year, which Republican candidate would you prefer to see opposing Kay Hagan in the General Election. It does not matter who you would vote for in November – this is about which of the following Republican candidates you would prefer to have on the general election ballot…
27%            Thom Tillis
13%            Greg Brannon
16%            Mark Harris
13%            None/Other/No One
30%            Don’t Know
1%              Refused
Turning to national issues…
16) How much longer do you think it will take for the economy to improve and the current recession to end? If you think the current recession has ended just say so.
5/11                          1/14      3/14      4/14
1%                             1%         1%         1%         Under 6 months
7%                             5%         6%         4%         Between 6 months and a year
22%                           17%       15%       18%       Between 1 and 2 years
60%                           62%       59%       58%       Over 2 years
3%                             7%         10%       11%       Recession has ended
7%                             7%         8%         9%         Don’t Know
17) Do you support or oppose the Affordable Care Act, also known as ObamaCare?
12/13         1/14           3/14           4/14
44%            41%            41%            47%            Total Support
53%            52%            56%            50%            Total Oppose
31%            25%            26%            33%            Strongly Support
13%            17%            15%            14%            Somewhat Support
9%              6%              8%              8%              Somewhat Oppose
45%            46%            48%            41%            Strongly Oppose
3%              6%              4%              3%              Don’t Know/ No Opinion
*Due to rounding, subtotals may differ from final sums.

 For details, click on: Crosstabs April 2014 live – politics

This poll of 600 registered voters in North Carolina was conducted April 19 and 21-22, 2014 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered general election voters in North Carolina. Twenty-five percent of the respondents were cell phone-only users. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2010, 2012) or be newly registered to vote since November 7, 2012.The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.”

Civitas conducts the only regular live-caller polling of North Carolina voters. For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.

The Civitas Institute is a policy institute based in Raleigh, N.C. More information is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099 or james.tynen@nccivitas.org.

 

About Jim Tynen

Communications director at Civitas.
This article was posted in Press Releases by Jim Tynen on April 29, 2014 at 8:00 AM.

© 2011 The Civitas Institute. Visit us on the web at www.nccivitas.org.
This article can be found at http://www.nccivitas.org/2014/pollputstillisinlead/

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