Race Tightening with Two Weeks Remaining
Raleigh, N.C. – The race for President in North Carolina is showing signs of tightening with just two weeks remaining until election day. Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama had opened up a 5 point lead in a previous Civitas poll, but a new poll released today shows his margin down to three points over John McCain.
According to the live telephone survey of 600 likely General Election voters, Obama leads McCain 47-42 among those who initially voiced support for a candidate. However, when undecided voters are asked which way they lean, Obama’s lead becomes to 48-45. Libertarian candidate Bob Barr receives two percent of the vote. Seven percent of voters remained undecided.
“Since John McCain has begun to campaign in North Carolina, his numbers seem to be improving,” said Francis De Luca, Executive Director of the Civitas Institute. “He’s been able to pick up two points on Obama in the past two weeks according to our polling.”
A gender gap appears to be developing as female voters break for Obama 54-36, but McCain holds a 9 point advantage with male voters.
Previous Civitas Poll results:
February – McCain 46, Obama 36
April – McCain 48, Obama 39
May – McCain 44, Obama 39
June – McCain 45, Obama 41, Barr 2
July – McCain 43, Obama 40, Barr 2
August – McCain 46, Obama 40, Barr 2
September – McCain 45, Obama 45, Barr 2
October 8th – Obama 48, McCain 43, Barr 2
The Civitas poll is the only recurring, live interviewer, poll on issues and politics in North Carolina.
The study of 600 registered voters was conducted October 18-20 by Tel Opinion Research of Alexandria, Virginia. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters we interviewed had to have voted in either the 2002, 2004 or 2006 general election or were newly registered voters since 2006. The voters were interviewed using live callers.
The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95% of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4.2% of the “True Values.” “True Values” refer to the results obtained if were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in either the 2002, 2004 or 2006 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2006.
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