Poll of President, US Senate, Governor, State Senate races
Raleigh, N.C. – The Civitas Institute released results of a new poll today conducted in Southeastern North Carolina showing John McCain, Kay Hagan and Bev Perdue leading their respective races. The poll surveyed 642 likely voters in Brunswick, Columbus, New Hanover and Pender counties and included questions on State Senate races for Senate District 8 (Soles) and Senate District 9 (Boseman).
According to the live telephone survey of likely General Election voters:
John McCain – 47%
Barack Obama – 40%
Bob Barr – 1%
Not sure – 11%
Kay Hagan – 42%
Elizabeth Dole – 36%
Chris Cole – 4%
Not sure – 18%
Bev Perdue – 40%
Pat McCrory – 37%
Mike Munger – 3%
Not sure – 19%
Senate District 8
RC Soles – 42%
Bettie Fennell – 33%
Rachel Merrill – 5%
Not sure – 20%
Senate District 9
Julia Boseman – 49%
Michael Lee – 37%
Not Sure – 14%
“While these results on the surface appear positive for Senator McCain and Lt. Gov. Perdue, they are running far behind their respective party’s candidates four years ago,” said Francis De Luca, Executive Director of the Civitas Institute. “These candidates’s weakness statewide can be attributed to the fact they are struggling with Southeastern North Carolina voters.” Surprisingly, with roughly two weeks remaining the campaign, many Southeastern North Carolina voters remain undecided.”
In 2004, President George W. Bush defeated Senator John Kerry in Southeastern North Carolina by more than 13 percent. Specifically, in New Hanover County, Bush defeated Kerry by 12 percent 56-44, but in the Civitas poll, Barack Obama leads John McCain in New Hanover County by one point.
Similarly, Gov. Mike Easley defeated Republican nominee Sen. Patrick Ballantine in Southeast NC by nearly twenty points, but Lt. Gov Bev Perdue is only holding on to a slim three point lead over Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory.
“There are still a large number of undecided voters sitting on the sidelines. These races will come down to the last weekend, and I expect many very close races up and down the ballot on election night,” concluded De Luca.
The Civitas Poll is the only monthly, live interviewer, poll on issues and politics conducted in North Carolina.
The study of 642 registered voters was conducted October 12-14 by Tel Opinion Research of Alexandria, Virginia. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters we interviewed had to have voted in either the 2002, 2004 or 2006 general election or were newly registered voters since 2006. The voters were interviewed using live callers.
The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95% of the time, results from 642 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-3.7% of the “True Values.” “True Values” refer to the results obtained if were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in either the 2002, 2004 or 2006 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2006.
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