RALEIGH, N.C. – In a statewide survey conducted Sunday and Monday after the Republican primary in South Carolina, John McCain has taken a solid lead among North Carolina Republicans and Independents. In a remarkable comeback McCain has moved from last place and a single digit (9 percent) showing in October to a solid lead of 32 percent of the primary vote. McCain’s closest competitor is Mike Huckabee with half of McCain’s support at 16 percent, followed by Mitt Romney (12 percent) and Rudy Giuliani (10 percent).
In the Democratic primary, Barack Obama (29 percent) and Hillary Clinton (28 percent) are tied for the lead with John Edwards (22 percent) in third place. The Democratic race has also been seriously altered since the October Civitas DecisionMaker Poll with Obama surging 11 points and Clinton falling 13 points.
McCain’s lead is across the spectrum; he leads among Republicans and Independents, in every age category, all income and education categories, and with equal support among males and females. McCain holds a 10-point lead, 30 percent to 20 percent, over Huckabee among self-described very conservative voters and a commanding 42 percent to 10 percent among moderate voters.
The Democratic primary shows a much different picture with the candidates having very different support groups. Clinton is favored by older voters and Obama by younger voters. Obama’s support comes from higher educated and wealthier voters, while Clinton’s vote is more liberal. The female vote is evenly split between Obama ( 28 percent) and Clinton (30 percent), while the African-American vote favors Obama 48 percent to 23 percent.
DEMOCRAT QUESTION: If the 2008 Democratic primary election for president were held today, which of the following Democrats would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton 28%
John Edwards 22%
Barack Obama 29%
Not sure 21%
REPUBLICAN QUESTION: If the 2008 Republican primary election for president were held today, which of the following Republicans would you vote for?
Rudy Giuliani 10%
John McCain 32%
Mitt Romney 12%
Fred Thompson 9%
Mike Huckabee 16%
Ron Paul 4%
Not sure 17%
The DecisionMaker Poll was conducted on January 20-21 with live telephone interviews with 800 registered voters, who voted in the 2002 and 2004 general elections, were first time voters in the 2006 general election, or voted in 2004 and 2006 as newly registered voters. It has a margin of error of +-3.7 percent.