The campaign trail for Democratic Presidential nominee Barak Obama makes a stop in Raleigh today as the latest Civitas poll shows rival Republican John McCain has increased his lead by three points and now leads 46-40. Libertarian candidate Bob Barr received two percent support. (More…)
Unaffiliated voters breaking for McCain
Raleigh, N.C. – The campaign trail for Democratic Presidential nominee Barak Obama includes a stop in Raleigh today as the latest Civitas poll shows rival Republican John McCain has increased his lead by three points and now leads 46-40. Libertarian candidate Bob Barr received two percent support.
“This month we’ve seen McCain reverse the tightening trend over the last few months and expand his lead over Obama by garnering a larger share of unaffiliated voters,” said Francis DeLuca, Executive Director of the Civitas Institute. In Civitas’ July survey, McCain led among unaffiliated voters by one point (40-39). This month, his lead is 18 points (49-31).
After spending in excess of $5 million in the primary in North Carolina, the Obama campaign continues to invest millions of dollars in television, field operations and commit his personal time as witnessed by his visit to North Carolina today. It is estimated that Obama has spent more than $2 million on television in North Carolina since the primary.
“While Obama and his campaign have talked about North Carolina being in play, the numbers do not seem to be indicating that is happening on the ground despite an unprecedented effort. According to our polling, Obama seems to be stuck at 40 percent support,” commented DeLuca.
Previous Civitas Poll results:
February – McCain 46, Obama 36
April – McCain 48, Obama 39
May – McCain 44, Obama 39
June – McCain 45, Obama 41, Barr 2
July – McCain 43, Obama 40, Barr 2
Click here for full results and crosstabs.
The study of 600 registered voters was conducted August 14-17 by Tel Opinion Research of Alexandria, Virginia. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters we interviewed had to have voted in either the 2002, 2004 or 2006 general election or were newly registered voters since 2006. The voters were interviewed using live callers.
The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95% of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4.2% of the “True Values.” “True Values” refer to the results obtained if were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in either the 2002, 2004 or 2006 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2006.
If you would like more information regarding this topic, or to schedule an interview with Francis De Luca, please call Gabe Dellinger at 919.747.8065 or email at Gabe.Dellinger@nccivitas.org.