Raleigh, N.C. – With just a week before the 2010 midterm elections, US Senator Richard Burr holds a 10-point lead over Democratic candidate Elaine Marshall, according to a new poll released today by the Civitas Institute.
According to the live caller poll of 600 likely voters, 44 percent of voters said they would vote for Burr if the election for United States Senate were held today. Thirty-four percent of voters said they would vote for Marshall, and 18 percent said they are not sure.
When looking at voters who say they are extremely interested in the election for offices such as US Senate, Congress, and North Carolina state offices, Burr’s lead increases to a 49 percent-33 percent margin.
“Burr’s ability to directly communicate with the voters through television, combined with the favorable environment for Republican candidates this year, is creating an insurmountable obstacle for Marshall,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes. “Marshall just hasn’t been able to build any sort of momentum to make a serious challenge to Burr.”
Early voting turnout numbers indicate that close to 373,000 voters have cast ballots. Of that total, 7.2 percent of registered Republicans have voted while 6 percent of registered Democrats have cast their vote.
“The Republican enthusiasm gap is being seen through early voting where Republican turnout is far outpacing 2008 levels while Democratic turnout is severely lagging,” added Hayes.
The Civitas Poll is the only monthly live-caller poll of critical issues facing North Carolina. For more information on Civitas polling see www.nccivitas.org/media/poll-results/.
Full text of questions:
“If the election for United States Senate were held today, for whom would you vote: Republican Richard Burr, Democrat Elaine Marshall, or Libertarian Mike Beitler?”
Burr – 36%
Lean Burr – 8%
TOTAL BURR – 44%
Lean Marshall – 4%
Marshall – 30%
TOTAL MARSHALL – 34%
Beitler – 4%
Not Sure – 18%
Click here for full results and crosstabs.
This poll of 600 likely general election voters in North Carolina was conducted October 18-20, 2010 by Tel Opinion Research of Alexandria, Virginia. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters we interviewed had to have voted in either the 2004, 2006 or 2008 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2008.
The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in either the 2004, 2006 or 2008 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2008.