Raleigh, N.C. – Republican candidate Mike Hager is ahead of Democratic opponent Jim Proctor in the race for the state House District 112 race, according to a new SurveyUSA poll released today by the Civitas Institute.
According to the poll of 350 registered voters in that district, comprised of Cleveland and Rutherford counties, 46 percent of voters said they would vote for Hager if the election for state Representative were held today. Thirty-six percent said they would vote for Proctor, and 18 percent said they were undecided.
Among voters who said they are most likely to vote in 2010, Hager’s lead jumps to 56 percent-33 percent. In addition, unaffiliated voters are overwhelmingly backing Hager 52 percent to 21 percent.
“With incumbent Democrat Bob England’s retirement, HD 112 becomes one of the best Republican pickup opportunities in the state,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes. “This is a solid Republican district that voted overwhelmingly for John McCain in 2008.”
Both candidates appear generally unknown in name identification among voters. Seventeen percent of voters have an opinion of Proctor (11 percent favorable-6 percent unfavorable), giving him a net +5 favorable rating. Forty-four percent of voters said they are neutral, and 38 percent said they have no opinion of his candidacy.
Hager pulls slightly ahead in name recognition as 29 percent of voters said they have an opinion of him (18 percent favorable-11 percent unfavorable) for a net favorable +7. Thirty-five percent of voters said they are neutral, and 36 percent said they have no opinion.
“With both candidates having very low name identification, a lot can change, but this district seems to be trending back to its Republican leanings,” added Hayes.
House District 112 is rated as an R+7 district on Civitas’ North Carolina Partisan Index – an index that rates the relative partisan voting habits of individual legislative districts. For more on the NCPI, click here.
For full results and crosstabs from the poll, click here.
The survey of 350 registered voters was taken August 11-12 by SurveyUSA on behalf of the Civitas Institute using the Interactive Voice Response (IVR) method. It carries a margin of error of 4.9%.
This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S. Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ.