Civitas Poll: Sen. Hagan Is Toss-Up on Ballot against a Generic Republican

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May 29, 2013
CONTACT: Francis De Luca (919) 834-2099

RALEIGH – The latest Civitas Poll suggests U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan could face serious competition in 2014. Given a ballot choice between Hagan, a Democrat, and a Republican candidate, 44 percent of voters chose the Republican, while 42 percent selected Hagan.

The poll of 600 registered North Carolina voters had a margin of error of plus-minus 4 percent.

“Hagan continues to poll below the 50 percent mark that signals strong support for an incumbent,” said Civitas President Francis X. De Luca. “However, responses to a real GOP candidate may be different than for a generic label. Neither party should be complacent at this point.”

It also appears that North Carolina voters are moving towards electing someone to act as a check on the president as opposed to someone to support his policies. In February 2013, there was a 1-point difference and this month it was a 6-point difference towards electing someone “who will be a check and balance to President Obama’s programs and policies.”

Actual text of questions from the Civitas Poll:

If the election for US Senate were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between: the Republican candidate or Kay Hagan, the Democrat?

44%    Total Republican
42%    Total Hagan

34%     Definitely Republican
7%       Probably Republican
3%       Lean Republican
12%     Undecided
2%       Lean Hagan
9%       Probably Hagan
31%     Definitely Hagan
2%       Refused

And, in the next election for US Senator from North Carolina, which of the following is more important to you? Would you rather…

2/13 5/13  
45% 48% Elect a Republican who will be a check and balance to President Obama’s policies and programs.
44% 42% Elect a Democrat who will support President Obama’s programs and policies.
11% 9% Don’t Know/Neither/Other
1% Refused

For crosstabs from these questions, click here.

About the Poll:

This poll of 600 registered voters in North Carolina was conducted May 21-22, 2013 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered general election voters in North Carolina. Twenty-five percent of the respondents were cell phone-only users. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2010, 2012) or be newly registered to vote since November 3, 2012.

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.”

Civitas conducts the only regular live-caller polling of North Carolina voters. For more information on Civitas polling, see

The Civitas Institute is a think tank based in Raleigh, NC. More information on the Civitas Institute is available at, or contact Jim Tynen at or (919) 834-2099.

About Francis De Luca

Francis X. De Luca is president of the Civitas Institute. He has a varied background that includes political consulting, owning a small business, working at all levels of government and serving on active and reserve duty for 30 years with the United States Marine Corps, where he retired with the rank of Colonel. He was recalled to active duty after 9/11 and served over 4 years on active duty including deploying as part of Task Force Tarawa for Operation Iraqi Freedom. He also flew combat missions in the first Persian Gulf War. Francis received his undergraduate degree in Political Science from the University of North Carolina – Wilmington, and his Master’s Degree in Political Science from the University of West Florida. He is married and has two daughters. His management philosophy for how a policy organization measures its impact is best summarized by a quote from Mahatma Gandhi: “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win”.
This article was posted in Press Releases by Francis De Luca on May 29, 2013 at 11:46 AM.

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