Hagan Leads Tillis in NC Senate Race

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June 26, 2014
CONTACT: Francis De Luca (919) 834-2099       Francis.deluca@nccivitas.org

RALEIGH – The latest Civitas Institute Poll shows Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan leading the Republican candidate, state House Speaker Thom Tillis, in the race for the U.S. Senate.

Thirty-six percent of respondents picked Tillis, 42 percent favored Hagan, and 9 percent choose Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh. Asked to consider only the top two candidates, 43 percent choose Tillis, and 47 selected Hagan.

The live-caller poll of 600 registered North Carolina voters took place June 18, 19 and 22, and had a margin of error of plus/minus 4 percentage points. Of respondents, 25 percent were contacted via cell phone.

Text of questions*:

“If the election for US Senate were being held today, would you rather… “

3/14       4/14       5/14       6/14

49%        48%        50%        49%        Elect a Republican who will be a check and balance to President Obama’s policies and programs, and try to gain a Republican majority in the US Senate.

43%        42%        40%        45%        Elect a Democrat who will support President Obama’s programs and policies, and maintain a Democratic majority in the US Senate.

7%          9%          10%        6%          Don’t Know/Neither/Other

1%          —             —             —             Refused

“If the election for US Senate were being held today, for whom would you vote between Thom Tillis, the Republican, Kay Hagan, the Democrat, and Sean Haugh, the Libertarian?”

5/14       6/14

39%        36%        Total Tillis, the Republican

36%        42%        Total Hagan, the Democrat

8%          9%          Total Haugh, the Libertarian

15%        12%        Total Lean/ Undecided

31%        30%        DEFINITELY TILLIS

8%          6%          PROBABLY TILLIS

2%          1%          LEAN TILLIS

27%        36%        DEFINITELY HAGAN

9%          7%          PROBABLY HAGAN

1%          1%          LEAN HAGAN

4%          5%          DEFINITELY HAUGH

5%          4%          PROBABLY HAUGH

1%          1%          LEAN HAUGH

10%        9%          HARD UNDECIDED

1%          —             OTHER

1%          —             REFUSED


“And now suppose only two candidates were running for U.S. Senate.   For whom would you vote between: Thom Tillis, the Republican or Kay Hagan, the Democrat?”


5/14       6/14

46%        43%        Total Tillis

41%        47%        Total Hagan

12%        9%          Total Lean/ Undecided


37%        36%        Definitely Tillis

10%        8%          Probably Tillis

1%          2%          Lean Tillis

9%          5%          Undecided

2%          1%          Lean Hagan

10%        8%          Probably Hagan

31%        39%        Definitely Hagan

—             1%          Refused

“Thinking about Kay Hagan a bit more… In your opinion, do you feel that Senator Hagan is…”

26%        An independent voice in Washington D.C.

58%        A reliable vote for President Obama

15%        Don’t Know/ Unsure

1%          Refused

*Due to rounding, percentages may not equal 100.

Crosstabs here.

This poll of 600 registered voters in North Carolina was conducted June 18, 19 and 22, 2014 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered general election voters in North Carolina. Twenty-five percent of the respondents were cell phone-only users. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2010, 2012) or be newly registered to vote since November 7, 2012.The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.”

Civitas conducts the only regular live-caller polling of North Carolina voters. For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.

The Civitas Institute is a policy institute based in Raleigh, N.C. More information is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099 or james.tynen@nccivitas.org.

About Jim Tynen

Communications director at Civitas.
This article was posted in Press Releases by Jim Tynen on June 26, 2014 at 11:45 AM.

© 2011 The Civitas Institute. Visit us on the web at www.nccivitas.org.
This article can be found at https://www.nccivitas.org/2014/hagan-leads-tillis-nc-senate-race/

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