July 1, 2015
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Francis De Luca (919) 834-2099 email@example.com
Name Recognition Now the Biggest Factor
RALEIGH – A new Civitas Poll of registered North Carolina voters sheds light on voters’ presidential preferences more than a year ahead of the actual polling.
These questions were asked of all 600 voters, regardless of their party affiliation. The questions were open-ended, without suggesting names to respondents.
On the Republican side, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush led with 14 percent, followed by businessman Donald Trump with 10 percent and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 6 percent. More than a dozen other announced or likely candidates registered in single digits. Thirty-four percent of voters responded “don’t know.”
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton led Democrats with 33 percent, though she too trailed “don’t know,” which was the response of 37 percent. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders was the choice of 11 percent, followed by other candidates in single digits.
“These results show that name recognition is the most powerful factor in voters’ preferences at this point,” said Civitas President Francis De Luca. “That explains why the favorites are Jeb Bush, Hillary Clinton, and Donald Trump.”
Trump announced his candidacy the week before the Civitas Poll was taken.
The poll surveyed 600 registered North Carolina voters, 30 percent of whom were reached on cell phones. The survey was taken June 23-25, and had a margin of error of plus/minus 4 percent.
Following* are the relevant questions, which were asked of all voters:
Thinking ahead to the elections in 2016, for a moment…
If the 2016 Presidential Election were being held today who would you like to see as the candidate for the Republican Party? (OPEN END, DO NOT READ NAMES)
14% Jeb Bush
6% Ben Carson
3% Ted Cruz
— Carly Fiorina
1% Lindsey Graham
4% Mike Huckabee
1% George Pataki
4% Rand Paul
1% Rick Perry
5% Marco Rubio
— Rick Santorum
— Mark Everson
2% Scott Walker
2% Chris Christie
— John Kasich
1% Bobby Jindal
10% Donald Trump
— Skip Andrews
6% Other (Specify)
34% Don’t Know
If the 2016 Presidential Election were being held today who would you like to see as the candidate for the Democratic Party? (OPEN END, DO NOT READ NAMES)
33% Hillary Clinton
— Lincoln Chafee
1% Martin O’Malley
11% Bernie Sanders
— Jeff Boss
— Robby Wells
1% Willie Wilson
2% Jim Webb
5% Joe Biden
5% Other (Specify)
37% Don’t Know
[The following question was asked of those who picked a candidate.]
Now, thinking about the Republican and Democrat you’ve just selected… If the 2016 Presidential Election were between those candidates, and being held today, and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between (ROTATE): (candidate selected), the Republican, and (candidate selected), the Democrat?
45% The Republican
53% The Democrat
[The following question was asked of those who selected “don’t know” or “refused” when asked about candidates.]
28B. If the 2016 Presidential Election were being held today, and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between (ROTATE) the Republican candidate, and the Democrat candidate?
41% The Republican
39% The Democrat
*Totals may not equal 100 percent, because of rounding.
Crosstabs for poll here.
About the poll: This poll of 600 registered voters in North Carolina was conducted June 23-25, 2015 by National Research, Inc., of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered general election voters in North Carolina. Thirty percent of the respondents were cell phone-only users. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2012, 2014) or be newly registered to vote since November 1, 2014. The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.”
For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.
The Civitas Institute – “North Carolina’s Conservative Voice” – is at 100 S. Harrington St., Raleigh, NC, 27603.
The mission of the Civitas Institute is to facilitate the implementation of conservative policy solutions to improve the lives of all North Carolinians. Towards that end, Civitas provides research, information and training to:
• empower citizens to become better civic leaders and more informed voters;
• educate emerging public leaders, enabling them to be more effective in the democratic process; and
• inform elected officials about citizen-based, free-market solutions to problems facing North Carolinians.
More information is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099 or firstname.lastname@example.org.