American Research Group is out with a new poll conducted this week and it shows McCain leading Obama 52%-41%.
A couple of interesting things with this poll:
1. Their percentage of African American voters — 24% — is higher than any other pollster has been and is higher than it will be (barring something really, really, really wacky happening.) African Americans make up 20.9% of registered voters. For blacks to make up 24% of the actual vote, they would have to turnout at near 100% and whites maintain their turnout levels from 2004. Not impossible, but highly, highly unlikely.
2. They have Obama only winning 25% of the white vote. As I wrote yesterday in a column released exclusively to our polling information list (sign up here), for Obama to win NC he needs to receive in excess of 36% of the white vote.
How many more polls like this until Obama pulls out of NC and decides to spend his money on more high-value targets like VA, CO, NM, MI, OH, FL or any of the other more competitive states?
I say 2 weeks.
ARG has a bad reputation from the primaries and RCP doesn’t use them now. I’d love to believe them here, of course.
It seems as of today that Obama either believes he can win NC, or is trying to help the down-ticket here, because he’s coming to Charlotte this Sunday:
http://wunc.org/programs/news/Isaac-Hunters-Tavern/thurs-get-the-popcorn/cbentry_view
My honest assessment is Obama is wasting his time here. He needs to win 270 electoral votes and there are other states that get him over the hump which are more competitive than NC.
CO, NM, NV, OH, FL, or VA just to name a few.
NC is icing on the cake. If Obama wins NC he’s going to be winning big — like 320-330 Electoral votes big. NC will not put him over the top — thus, a waste of time.
But if he wants to waste time and resources here instead of fighting in true battleground states, that’s fine with me.