Much has been speculated already about voter intensity this year — how Republicans seem fired up to vote and Democrats not so much, but we finally have some numbers that bear that speculation out.
From Susan’s one-stop voting chart posted yesterday:
Republican one-stop turnout was 74% of 2008 turnout.
Democratic one-stop turnout was 26% of 2008 turnout.
Surely, there is going to be some drop off from the record high turnout in 2008 with the competitive Presidential primary, but that is still a significant loss.
What is most interesting is the way unaffiliated voters are breaking. As you know, unaffiliated voters can choose to vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary. In 2008, 52,379 unaffiliated voters cast primary ballots: Roughly 7,000 in the GOP primary, 44,000 in the Democratic primary — a greater than 6:1 ratio.
This year, more unaffiliateds are choosing Republican ballots. Of the 22,151 unaffiliated voters at one stop — the breakout was roughly 12,000 GOP ballots to 9,500 Democratic ballots (the other 700 or so chose the unaffiliated ballot of just judicial races).
Even with the only competitive statewide race being the Democratic Senate Primary, more unaffiliated voters choose to vote in the Republican primary than the Democratic primary — an early indication, but a strong one, of which way unaffiliated voters are leaning this year.
If the Democratic candidates can’t motivate their base to vote, unaffiliateds are breaking abnormally Republican and Republicans are motivated and fired up to vote, this fall’s election could be another 1994.