Our latest monthly poll is out and we have the race for President tied in North Carolina 45-45. Full release here.
A couple of things to note:
1. Our percentage of African Americans is at 22% in this month’s sample with Obama getting 95% of their vote and McCain getting 0%. Personally, I think that percentage is about one point too high. As I wrote in my column on Obama’s chances of winning NC, I think black turnout will equal the overall turnout, and given their registration percentage, means black voters will comprise 21% of the vote.
Does this difference matter for our poll? Not really, but just thought I’d point it out. I will note that Obama is still only receiving 30% of the white vote, about 6-7% under what I think he needs to get to win NC.
2. We were in the field last Wednesday through Saturday, which coincided with the announcements of the AIG loan and larger bailouts. A number of national pollsters have noted that Wednesday and Thrusday were some of the worst nights of polling for McCain they had seen, and it shows in our numbers.
By all accounts, last week was bad for McCain. But things happen so quickly in this environment that these numbers should be taken as fluid. Last week it was tied, next week — who knows? But we’ll keep trying to give you the best picture of things we can. Stay tuned.
A preview of our release schedule:
US Senate numbers out later today.
Governor tomorrow morning.
The 3 open seats on Council of State (Lt. Gov, Treasurer, Comm. of Insurance) on Wednesday morning.