RALEIGH — With the 2012 legislative campaigns entering the final months, the Civitas Institute has flash-polled likely voters in North Carolina House District 6, which includes Dare, Washington and Hyde counties, and part of Beaufort County. Republican Mattie Lawson, a small-business owner, has a slim lead over Democratic standard-bearer Paul Tine, also a business owner.
The Civitas Flash Poll of 300 registered voters with a margin of error of 5.8 percent was taken Sept. 9-10. It showed Lawson with a 3 percentage-point lead over Tine, 45 percent to 42 percent. This lead is within the margin of error. Democrats are supporting Tine 61 percent to 22 percent; Lawson leads among Republican voters 84 percent to 11 percent. Unaffiliated voters are evenly split, with 43 percent supporting each candidate.
In the presidential race, among district voters, Mitt Romney edges President Obama, 49 percent to 47 percent. Romney is capturing 86 percent of Dist. 6 Republicans and 48 percent of unaffiliated voters. Romney is pulling 26 percent of the Democratic vote, with that bloc of eastern NC voters breaking 71 percent for Obama.
Republican gubernatorial candidate Pat McCrory leads in most statewide polls, and that holds true in House Dist. 6. He leads Democratic Lt. Governor Walter Dalton 46 percent to 38 percent, with Libertarian Barbara Howe registering 5 percent. In the district, Republicans break 87 percent for McCrory and 24 percent of Democrats indicate they would vote for him. Among unaffiliated voters, McCrory leads Dalton 41 to 32 percent.
By a 2-to-1 margin, district voters agree that people should be required to show photo identification to cast their ballots. Sixty-six percent of those polled said voters should be required to present photo ID; 31 percent opposed the requirement.
In the Civitas Flash Poll, 51 percent said the state is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 35 percent saying it’s headed in the right direction. In addition, district voters’ opinion on the economy was slightly positive, with 26 percent saying things will get better and 22 percent saying things will get worse, while 43 percent said it would stay the same.
Overall, voter intensity in the district was strong among all voters, with 97 percent saying they are certain they will vote, and 2 percent saying they are likely to vote. This suggests that neither side will have a problem turning out their voters on Election Day.
Click here for crosstabs.
Information on future polls will be available at Civitas Poll Lunches later in September.
About the Poll: This poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Where necessary, respondents were weighted using the most recent US Census estimates for age, gender, ethnic origin and region, to align the sample to the population. Research methodology, questionnaire design and fieldwork for this survey were completed by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.
More information on the Civitas Institute is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099.